Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, March 2, 1990 TAG: 9003022797
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A11 EDITION: STATE
SOURCE: Cox News Service
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
"A hard-line regime would probably use massive military force to prevent the succession of the Baltic states," William Webster told the House Armed Services Committee.
Such new Soviet leadership could survive only with the support of the Red Army, which would be "severely tested" by the upheaval, Webster said. "There is no way to predict how military commanders and troops would respond if ordered to fire on civilians," the CIA director testified.
Webster said, however, that he did not think Gorbachev will be removed. And even if a new regime did seize control, it would be unlikely to resume the Cold War or seek to reverse the political changes in Eastern Europe, Webster predicted.
"It sounds like a win-win situation for us," said committee Chairman Rep. Les Aspin, D-Wis.
Webster's testimony came as Congress grapples with the 1991 defense budget amid new concerns over troop levels in Europe.
Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has questioned a U.S.-Soviet deal which would bar deployment of more than 30,000 American troops on the periphery of Western Europe under a treaty to be completed later this year.
Nunn, and some senior military leaders, worry that the ban doesn't give the United States enough flexibility in light of the reunification of Germany and rapid changes in Eastern Europe.
Webster said most of those changes appear "irreversible."
"Marxist-Leninist ideology is now bankrupt as a serious alternative," Webster said. "Perhaps more importantly, there is little chance that Soviet hegemony could be restored in Eastern Europe."
Reactionary forces are "too weak and discredited" to regain power in Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary and Poland, the CIA chief said. "The prospects for democracy and market economies in those countries seem relatively good." The outlook for Romania and Bulgaria is not as clear, Webster said.
Events in Moscow are now the biggest question mark, he said. "The long-term outlook for the present leadership, and the Soviet Union itself, is uncertain," Webster said.
Despite recent actions by the Supreme Soviet and the Communist Party plenum which strengthened Gorbachev's powers, it is still possible that reactionary forces could move to oust him. This could not be accomplished without abandoning many of the current reforms and imposing strict controls, Webster said.
"Large demonstrations of pro-reform forces would develop in Moscow and other cities, and widespread violence almost certainly would result," he said.
Gorbachev's successors, however, would inherit the same monumental economic and political problems plaguing the current leadership, according to the CIA assessment.
Such a regime would be unlikely to seek a confrontation with the United States and would very likely continue to pursue arms control agreements with the West.
"It would be unlikely, in addition, to seek a broad reversal of the changes that have occurred in Eastern Europe, or to try to revive the Warsaw Pact," Webster said.
On a related matter, Webster said the Soviet withdrawal from Eastern Europe appears to be on schedule. Three divisions and 2,700 tanks, plus critical assault river crossing forces, have been withdrawn.
by CNB