
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SATURDAY, March 10, 1990                   TAG: 9003102264
SECTION: CURRENT                    PAGE: NRV3   EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY 
SOURCE: PETER MATHEWS NEW RIVER VALLEY BUREAU
DATELINE: CHRISTIANSBURG                                 LENGTH: Medium

JOBLESS RATE IN NEW RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED TO WORSEN

Virginia Employment Commission officials say much of the New River Valley's recent increase in unemployment was seasonal and not caused by layoffs, but they do expect the figures to get worse.

The rate for the valley increased from 5.9 percent in December to 7.7 percent in January, but it still is about half a percentage point below what it was in January 1989.

The 7.7 percent figure was incorrectly reported in this newspaper Wednesday as the rate for just Montgomery County and Radford.

Bill Mezger, an economist for the VEC in Richmond, said state unemployment generally increases about half a percentage point from December to January.

Unemployment usually is at its highest in January and February because work slows in outdoor industries, such as construction, when winter hits. Temporary retail jobs lost after Christmas also increase unemployment, but that effect is not as great in the valley, he said.

Mezger said VEC officials will be watching closely the number of applications in the valley for unemployment benefits. He said he expects more job reductions because of slumps in the automotive and housing markets and further sizable layoffs as AT&T gradually closes its Fairlawn plant.

Melvin Fiel, job service manager for the VEC in Radford, said workers frequently changed jobs in past years to earn a bit more money or better benefits. Now they are hanging on to them.

"I don't think you'll see much hiring here," he said. "It will be tough for people in this area to get a good job. Everything has come to almost a screeching halt."

In January, Giles County had the highest jobless rate in the valley, 11.6 percent, up from 9.5 percent in December. Other January figures: Floyd, 8.7 percent, up from 5.7 percent a month before; Radford, 7.5 percent, up from 5.2; Montgomery, 6.5 percent, up from 4.9.

VEC officials said other factors besides layoffs boost the jobless rate. Sometimes the work force grows larger. In Floyd County, 110 jobs were lost and 90 people joined the work force. Of these, some work elsewhere and return to the county in the winter, Mezger said.

Giles' rate is influenced by economic changes in neighboring West Virginia, where many Giles residents work. And Mezger said rates also go up if weeklong furloughs, which some companies have used to forestall layoffs, occur during the VEC's counting period.

by CNB