Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, April 4, 1990 TAG: 9004040607
SECTION: CURRENT PAGE: NRV1 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: CATHRYN McCUE NEW RIVER VALLEY BUREAU
DATELINE: CHRISTIANSBURG LENGTH: Medium
Still, neither retailers nor analysts are delivering doom-and-gloom predictions for the retail industry here.
The valley, they say, as are so many other regions in the country, is going through a phase.
"Retail is an ever-changing thing," said Jeff Wendell, president of John Norman clothing stores based in Roanoke. "That's why it's so much fun for many of us."
To keep up with the changing times, Wendell moved his Blacksburg store twice in 14 years - from downtown to the University Mall to the New River Valley Mall. He closed his mall store last month partly because his Roanoke stores were being neglected, he said.
"Basically, we're in a recession. To retailers, that's been obvious for a year now," Wendell said.
Consumer spending in the Roanoke Valley and most of the New River Valley has slacked off for a multitude of reasons. One factor could be that consumers went on a spending spree during the '80s and don't seem to want to buy many goods right now; another reason is they are being more pennywise, concerned that dark times loom ahead.
"The failing of the federal government to deal adequately with the national debt - that thing hangs over our heads," Virginia Tech marketing professor James Brown said. "It makes people jittery."
The presence of Tech and Radford University as major employers helps stabilize the area's economy and offers some protection from economic shifts, he said.
But 1,300 job cuts announced recently in the valley causes consumers to worryeven more, Blacksburg economic coordinator Doug Eckel said.
Overzealous builders are also partly responsible for the empty storefronts in the New River Valley, Brown said.
"They've overdeveloped. They've been too optimistic."
A retail survey by John Enagonio, an Urban Affairs and Planning student at Tech, showed a 23 percent vacancy rate at shopping centers and malls last fall - nearly three times the national average.
A clear trend that emerges from looking at the valley's three population centers - Blacksburg, Christiansburg and Radford - is a shift in retail prosperity to Christiansburg. More specifically, the shift is to the corner of Virginia 114 and U.S. 460 where the New River Valley Mall and the Market Place are located.
A 17 percent jump in total receipts in 1989 in Christiansburg is reflected in stagnant sales for Blacksburg and Radford.
But, Wendell noted, "If business is down in Blacksburg and Radford, it may be no different than any other area in the country right now."
Radford's retail business has been on a virtual roller coaster over the last several years. Gross receipts went up $8 million 1986, then dropped $11 million the next year when Leggett moved to the mall, leaving a gaping hole in its downtown.
City officials soon after initiated a downtown revitalization program and receipts went back up $9 million.
The city appears to be regaining a toehold in the market.
Blacksburg's gross receipts grew steadily from 1984 until 1988, when its Leggett store closed, along with a Sears service center and several smaller shops. Although gross receipts increased slightly last year, inflation means an actual shrinkage in the retail trade.
Enagonio's survey shows that Blacksburg's major centers are 37 percent vacant, Christiansburg's are 18 percent vacant and Radford/Fairlawn's are nearly 10 percent vacant.
Brown said that throughout the country, mass-merchandising stores such as Wal-Mart have put pressure on smaller chains, department stores and local retailers.
However, preliminary figures show that retail in Virginia the first quarter of 1990 is up 13.6 percent, according to the Bureau of Business Research at the College of William and Mary.
For the New River Valley, the next several months and years hold many uncertainties: will there be more layoffs, will Tech continue its statewide expansion in favor of increasing student enrollment here, will Radford University similarly lift its enrollment cap, will industrial development efforts pay off and bring more workers to the area, workers who need more shops and services?
"I think in the short term," Brown said, "it's going to be tougher before it gets better."
by CNB