Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, June 14, 1990 TAG: 9006140468
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-15 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: RAY L. GARLAND
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
When asked a few months ago whether this meant Wilder were running for president, my response was, "Nah, he's just enjoying himself and establishing his credentials as a player in national politics down the road."
Now I'm not so sure.
He departs the governor's office in January 1994, and Wilder could contemplate starting a serious pursuit of the presidency in 1996. But assuming Bush is re-elected and in 1996 completes 16 years of Republican hegemony at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., there is certain to be a stampede of aspiring Democrats. There is no discernible stampede as yet, however, for the honor of taking on the incumbent president in 1992.
When Wilder went to New Hampshire the other day, a Virginia reporter canvassed on-the-street opinion and found few denizens of the first-in-the-nation-primary state having any clear idea of the identity of their distinguished visitor. But Wilder is well-known among political pros, and the glare of the national media - already beaming upon him - can make his name a household word is an astonishingly short period of time.
Is there room for both Jesse Jackson and Doug Wilder on the hustings in 1991-92? The conventional wisdom would say no, but the conventional wisdom has never before encountered a highly skilled politician only incidentally black proclaiming himself the definer and custodian of a "New Mainstream."
The conventional wisdom might also hold that since it costs Jackson nothing to run (indeed, he earns his livelihood from the lecture fees, etc., his celebrityhood generates), he can be a permanent candidate for the presidency. But permanently unsuccessful candidates have a way of becoming permanent jokes. There comes a time when every disappointed world-saver must decide not to push his luck beyond the point of no return.
The presidential election of 1992, however, is still very much written on the wind. If the country slides into a painful recession, all manner of things are possible, and many Democrats will start dusting off their collected speeches. As the "Misery Index" rises, so will Jackson's hopes. But the reverse may be equally true: a prosperous nation at peace, not only deaf to Jackson's fearmongering but tired of it.
There are two scenarios in which a Wilder national candidacy might become a realistic proposition. The first is the "grief scenario," in which rising joblessness produces an atmosphere of class antagonism in which Jackson prospers. He comes to the Democratic convention with more delegates than anybody else but short of a majority, and loudly clamors for the party to honor his mandate to lead. In mortal fear of nominating Jackson, the party turns to Wilder, perhaps in the second spot.
The excitement of having been the first major party to nominate a black for national office would drown out any complaints that Jackson might have.
The second, more likely script might be called the "rosy-days scenario." The nation dodges the recession bullet, and the popularity of George Bush remains a mile wide and a quarter-inch thick. Jackson senses that it's not his time and gladly defers to his "old and dear friend" Wilder. Offering Jacksonism without tears against a weak field, Wilder becomes a serious contender, and high on everybody's "short list" of vice-presidential prospects.
It has been often observed that you cannot "run" for the vice presidency, though there are exceptions to this, Geraldine Ferraro among them and we all know how that turned out. Normally, the vice presidency is an office for which only one vote counts, that of the presidential candidate.
Would a Lloyd Bentsen or an Albert Gore see advantages in putting Wilder on the ticket?
As stated above, that could happen as a way to assuage Jackson. But what of the "rosy-days scenario?" Bush may be a prohibitive favorite for re-election, but no nominee is going to preclude the chance of victory in his own mind. The calculation will be made, "Does Wilder help more than he hurts?" The answer, I believe, will be: "Better not; why take a chance?"
Against a hobbled Republican candidate running a poor campaign, Virginia voters narrowly shrugged off suggestions of impropriety, such as the fact that the state Supreme Court had censured Wilder for conduct unbecoming a lawyer. While that may be ancient history in Virginia now, the national press would be certain to revisit it, and there's more.
The downside for the people of Virginia in all this is that a governor spending most of his energies in pursuit of the presidency or the vice presidency will not have time to do justice to the job at hand, and the government of Virginia at this hour cries out for a careful steward and a strong manager.
If Wilder persists, perhaps he might consider doing what he once derided Marshall Coleman for doing: going on half-pay.
by CNB