Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, June 17, 1990 TAG: 9006180358
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: C3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: ROBERT McCONNELL
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Despite current euphoria, the stage is clearly set for regional and global conflict. But unlike most wars since the Renaissance, these may not arise from growth pains accompanying the formation of nation-states. Rather, they may arise from unprecedented environmental crises.
One possible scenario pits industrialized nations against rapidly growing, and polluting, developing nations.
Environmental degradation, due largely to population increases and fossil-fuel use, has reached acute levels throughout the world. During the next two decades, billions of additional people will consume ever-increasing amounts of energy from fossil fuels.
Though fossil-fuel use in the United States may increase as much as 35 percent by the year 2010, according to government forecasts, most of this growth will occur in developing nations. Inevitably, this will lead to accelerated rates of water and air pollution, notably in the form of acid rain, and to increases in the atmospheric content of carbon dioxide and ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons.
These effects will transcend national boundaries. At the same time, industrialized nations will be spending billions yearly on pollution control. A desire to protect what is left of a nation's environmental health from "foreign" pollution may lead to a new and dangerous period in human history.
Developing nations, whose economic and population growth will require massive increases in fossil fuels and raw materials, may perceive the threat and rush to arm. Nuclear proliferation could mushroom.
Without clear understanding of the ways in which environmental pollution in one country affects others, no voluntary worldwide effort to mitigate such effects can begin.
Sulfur and nitrous oxides from coal-fired power plants in the central United States, coupled with auto exhaust, are causing acidification of lakes in New England and eastern Canada, deterioration of buildings and increased health hazards - the familiar acid rain.
Similarly, coal-fired plants in the United Kingdom and elsewhere are causing acidification of Scandinavia's lakes, and have contributed to the slow death of Germany's Black Forest.
Deforestation in Nepal is increasing erosion in the Himalayan foothills and dumping millions of tons of silt into rivers which feed the delta of Bangladesh. The result is increasingly severe floods, with inevitable loss of life and property.
The Chernobyl nuclear disaster, familiar to all Europeans, is little understood by Americans who remain unaware of its global impact.
The activities of armed forces result in extensive environmental degradation and waste of resources. Calls upon the American military to cease such practices typically result in claims of exemption from pollution laws. The Navy's use of chlorofluorocarbons to clean guns, claiming "national security" requires it, is a case in point.
Massive increases in coal consumption by China each year will add billions of tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. This will contribute to global warming and cancel any reductions in carbon-dioxide emissions resulting from expensive control measures in industrialized nations. Rainfall in Southeast Asia will become more and more acidic, accelerating forest and crop loss.
While the potential for environmental conflict grows, few show concern.
Industrialized countries evince few signs of fundamental changes away from autos and fossil fuels and toward mass transit and renewable energy sources. American politicans call for "more studies," and debate abortion and flag burning. France aggressively pursues its nuclear option for electricity. Automobile ownership grows in the developing world. Lacking alternatives, developing countries must increase chlorofluorocarbon production for auto air-conditioners and refrigerators, in pursuit of their version of the American Dream.
Negotiations could reduce the likelihood of conflict by agreement on the following points:
Population control is essential in developed as well as developing nations, requiring massive increases in assistance to Third World nations for family planning. In America and elsewhere, changes in tax laws should end subsidies for having children.
Scientific consensus exists that chlorofluorocarbons are a major cause of destruction of the ozone shield, vital to life on Earth. Chlorofluorocarbons must be eliminated from the industrial world by the turn of the century, and from the developing world soon after.
Use of petroleum-based automobiles must be reduced by fees, fuel taxes and driving restrictions. This need is greatest in the United States. Mass-transit alternatives are likewise essential.
The growth rate of fossil-fuel use must be slowed, and eventually reversed. This will require massive investment in renewable energy sources such as wind, wave, ocean thermal, and solar, and unprecedented conservation efforts.
A disintegrating global ecosystem, fueled by population increase and economic growth, could well spark the wars of the 21st century. We have the means to reduce the potential for such conflicts. Whether we have the will remains to be demonstrated.
by CNB