
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: THURSDAY, June 21, 1990                   TAG: 9006210038
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-4   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: The Washington Post
DATELINE: SAN FRANCISCO                                LENGTH: Short

STUDY: AIDS WILL SPREAD AMONG WOMEN, TEENS

The next decade of the AIDS epidemic will be worse and more complex than the first, with the disease spreading among women and adolescents and into geographical pockets that are now considered "safe," according to a three-year study issued Wednesday by a branch of the National Academy of Sciences.

The report, released by the National Research Council on the opening day of the Sixth International AIDS Conference, states in blunt terms that, contrary to recent reports that suggest the AIDS epidemic may have peaked, its "dimensions are sizable and will continue to grow" for years.

For adolescents, the forecast was especially troubling. Studies of recruits for military service show that in most cities rates of infection have become equal among 17- and 18-year-old men and women. In the past, nearly three times as many men were infected as women.

The report cites a variety of statistics and surveys for its conclusions, including the rise in numbers of infected women who are sexual partners of intravenous drug users and the rise of infections among users of crack cocaine and alcohol.

The proportion of all reported AIDS cases occurring among women has grown from about 6 percent in 1982 to roughly 10 percent today, the study found.

In a surprising but positive finding, the researchers reported that they could find no evidence that female prostitutes were transmitting AIDS cases to the larger heterosexual population in significant numbers. A large percentage of prostitutes reported using condoms, and most clients say they prefer oral sex, which is not thought likely to transmit the virus.

by CNB