Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, March 1, 1991 TAG: 9103010372
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: ED BLANCHE ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: NICOSIA, CYPRUS LENGTH: Medium
That may seem absurd in Western eyes. But Saddam claimed victory after the 1980-88 war with Iran - and it worked. Even though that war produced only losers, Iraqis rallied behind him.
This time, things could be different.
Saddam's hold on power may have been irretrievably weakened and his dream of becoming the new Nebuchadnezzar, the legendary king of ancient Babylon, shattered.
In the 8-year war against Iran, he cemented his position as absolute ruler by portraying the battle against the Arabs' ancient enemy, the Persians, as "Saddam's Qadissiyah."
By invoking that 637 A.D. Arab victory over the Persian empire, he called on Iraqis' deep sense of their ancient history.
In the war over Kuwait, it always was seen that Saddam would, no matter what the outcome, at the very least proclaim a political victory and be acclaimed by many Arabs for defying the might of the West.
After invading Kuwait on Aug. 2, Saddam's strategy was to radicalize the Arab masses by intensifying their resentment of the West for supporting Israel and, in their view, exploiting Arab oil wealth.
He's had considerable success in that endeavor. Whether it will be enough to save him is open to question.
In any case, the forces Saddam has set in motion could cause new convulsions in the Middle East.
Saddam has portrayed Iraq's confrontation with the West as a battle for national survival against a powerful foe bent on destroying the only Arab state prepared to challenge Israel and its allies.
But that could change when the scale of Iraq's military defeat and the devastation wreaked on the country's infrastructure finally sink in.
Power stations, oil refineries, petrochemical plants and other key economic facilities have been destroyed or badly damaged. Much of Iraq, including Baghdad, has no electricity. The capital and other cities have little or no water or sewage systems. Fuel is almost non-existent for civilians. Life is going to be tough for Iraq's 17 million people.
Saddam and Iraq's tightly controlled media will not be able to hide those facts for long. Even harder to conceal will be the war's casualty toll - wives and mothers will know when their men do not return from the front.
It's still not clear whether the United Nations sanctions imposed on Iraq in August to force it out of Kuwait will be lifted soon. If they're not, life will become even harsher for Iraqis, and the resentment against a leader who has led them into two disastrous wars in a decade could grow.
Iraqi exile sources contend many of their countrymen already are grumbling that Saddam's ambition has brought catastrophe down upon them.
But it's extremely difficult to predict the reactions of Iraqis, who have been in Saddam's iron grip for more than a decade, cowed and intimidated by his secret police, with all dissent ruthlessly crushed.
Saddam's ability to survive has been seriously weakened by the loss of the Republican Guards. He still has a large military force, but the Guards were a pillar of his regime.
The loss of his best fighters puts Saddam "in a very shaky position," said Don Kerr, an analyst with London's International Institute for Strategic Affairs. "The consequences could be very dramatic. . . . Military and civilian morale will be undermined," he said.
Saddam clawed his way to the presidency with a ruthless determination. He has stayed in power by eliminating his rivals and has survived several coup attempts.
But now, with his back to the wall as never before, he may be running out of options.
President Bush's call last week on Iraqis, and the military in particular, to depose Saddam finally spelled out an allied objective that until then had been left unspoken.
Keeping the economic pressure on Iraq, burdened with a $70 billion debt from the Iran-Iraq war and now facing punitive reparations for the seizure of Kuwait, could well tighten the screws on Saddam and bring about his downfall from within.
U.S. Secretary of State James Baker noted earlier this month that allied negotiations with Baghdad in the post-war period "would be a heck of a lot easier if Saddam wasn't there."
Iraq's fractious opposition groups abroad currently do not present an alternative to Saddam and his Baath Party.
But Iraq's generals, having witnessed their forces humiliated and chewed up by the allied juggernaut, could yet be nudged toward deposing him.
by CNB