
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: MONDAY, March 11, 1991                   TAG: 9103110301
SECTION: EDITORIAL                    PAGE: A/8   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: 
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

CONSERVATION

A YEAR ago this month, the Soviet Union's satellite empire was still breaking up. The oil cartel was trying to regroup; Saddam Hussein, having gone through an inconclusive war with Iran, appeared to pose little or no threat to his neighbors. And James Schlesinger, a former Cabinet member and CIA director, was testifying to Congress about energy.

In as little as two years, Schlesinger told the Senate Energy Committee, the world might be using oil as fast as it could be pumped out of the ground. Demands for oil from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, he said, were growing by more than a million barrels a day each year.

Before long, then, the daily demand would exceed the ready supply. This would create a seller's market, and the United States - already dangerously dependent on foreign crude - could witness a sharp rise in prices.

A year later, America has fought a war in the Mideast that in part had to do with control of oil. Prices jumped last year, but have declined. Gasoline may soon cost more, analysts say, but the price of oil should remain fairly stable - especially when Iraq and Kuwait join other OPEC members in pumping crude to pay war debts and damages. With oil cheap, demand will be strong.

The Schlesinger scenario remains valid; it's only been delayed a bit. After they've recouped, oil-cartel nations will be in position to boost prices because the rest of the world will want more oil than they can supply. U.S. demand for oil, the former energy secretary predicted, will grow by about 2 percent a year until there are steep price increases.

"We may as well acknowledge," Schlesinger said, "that over the past decade the United States as a practical matter abandoned the quest for energy independence - indeed, even the quest for low energy-dependency. If we are to limit our future vulnerability, either for national security or international financial reasons, we shall have to reverse course - and take vigorous action."

There's still time, and none like the present. As long as oil prices are low, the impact of a sharp increase in the gasoline tax will be cushioned. That's one way to discourage overconsumption. Americans can undertake other strict conservation measures to decrease our dependence on oil: With only 5 percent of the Earth's population, the United States uses 30 percent of its petroleum.

In 50 years or so, the whole world will feel the effect of dwindling oil supplies. Long before that, there'll be a tightening price vise. Its grip can be avoided, but not by continuing to burn oil as if there's no tomorrow.

by CNB