Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, March 28, 1991 TAG: 9103280305
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: ROB EURE and DWAYNE YANCEY/ STAFF WRITERS
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Long
By announcing the "Wilder for President Exploratory Committee," Wilder, the first black elected governor in the nation, is reaping even more publicity than usually comes to the first challengers in a presidential cycle.
Most political analysts said Wednesday they believe Wilder can mount a serious bid for the Democratic nomination and perhaps for the presidency.
"I remember the smart guys told him he couldn't be lieutenant governor, and the smart guys told him he couldn't be governor," said veteran Democratic adviser Bob Squier from Washington. "And the smart guys will tell him he can't be president. I wouldn't be against the guy. I think Doug Wilder gets to do anything he wants to."
However, a prominent black political scientist said Wilder's candidacy is doomed because the nation is not ready to elect a black president. "I don't think Doug Wilder has a chance," said Ron Walters of Howard University, where Wilder earned a law degree.
Wilder continues to maintain, as he has for months, that he is not running and that those organizing the committee are not doing it at his request. But he added: "I wouldn't say what they are doing is a waste of time."
Wilder said he has no timetable for deciding on making the race official, but he hinted he is looking toward the fall.
However, a spokesman for the Federal Elections Commission, where Wilder filed to organize the committee, said late Wednesday that he considers the papers a formal declaration of candidacy.
Although Wilder is only 14 months into his term as governor, analysts generally painted a picture of him as a national figure.
"I think he'll be taken seriously for a number of reasons," said William Schneider of the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank. "The fact that he's black but has a different message for black candidates - fiscal conservatism - and secondly, he's been elected to something statewide."
"He is tapping into a very rich vein of political possibilities," said Will Marshall, who heads the Progressive Policy Institute, a moderate Democratic think tank in Washington.
As a black Southerner who has culled a reputation of being frugal, Wilder brings the potential for weaving together disparate elements in the Democratic party.
However, said Howard University's Walters, "part of the problem with Doug Wilder, even given the notoriety he's gotten, is he's still not very well known. People are not likely to have an instantaneous reaction until they know him. The first reaction will be one of curiosity."
Curiosity could play to Wilder's advantage, though.
Already, Wilder's potential candidacy has attracted enormous interest. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato went to teach a class Wednesday afternoon and returned to find "I had 40 messages waiting from reporters all over the country.
"By simply announcing that he is testing the waters, Wilder gets the publicity of being the first candidate without the scrutiny of reporters," Sabato said.
But analysts generally agreed that Wilder's strengths - his race and his message - are also his weaknesses.
Russell Owens of the Joint Center for Political Studies, a liberal black think tank in Washington, said Wilder has sensed that black candidates can break out of black-based support.
In two statewide campaigns in Virginia, "he has been able to fashion a coalition that appealed to a broad segment," Owens said. "If he can do that again, he will certainly be a formidable candidate."
Owens argues that blacks are gaining victories in areas where they are in the minority, such as Kansas City, which elected a black mayor Tuesday.
"The political winds are changing, and the governor recognizes that," he said.
But Walters countered that race would be a bigger barrier to the presidency. "I think the presidential ball game is a different ball game. Most voters do recognize it as a very different, symbolic ball game, and that's why race is so important."
Schneider wondered whether the novelty of Wilder's candidacy would help or hurt. "If he gets to the national, would voters listen to what he's saying or would they look at him and say, there's a black man running for president?"
When white voters confront black candidates, "white voters do strange things. They lie to pollsters. They vote in bigger numbers," Schneider said.
Marshall, of the Progressive Policy Institute, said one reason Wilder should be taken seriously is "the fact that he's black means he comes in with a sturdier base than some long-shot candidates, because black voters tend to stick together."
However, some analysts questioned how much support Wilder can count on from blacks around in the country. In Virginia, blacks knew Wilder and gave him leeway to craft a conservative message, Schneider said. "Will he have the same leeway in a presidential election? I've had some Democrats say he'll be humiliated because he won't even carry the black vote [in a Democratic primary]. Blacks voters are the most pro-government group, and they won't like his message. That's the thing to look for in this race."
Walters said Wilder could offend white liberals as well as blacks with his fiscally conservative positions. "It's going to play to the split in the Democratic party. He's not going to have the benefit of a unified Democratic Party on that question. He's not going to have the benefit of a unified black constituency on that question.
"A lot of people are going to say fiscal conservative, social liberal, and are going to feel that's a hard trick to pull off," Walters said.
Others say Wilder's new message could be the tonic for a party that has lost five of the last six presidential elections.
"There are plenty of voters saying Democrats have got to change their message if they want to be competitive," Schneider said. "Wilder could be the one to bring that message because he's black."
Democrats agree if they are going to beat President Bush, who enjoys popularity ratings above 80 percent following the Persian Gulf War, they will need to concentrate on domestic issues.
"Who better to do that than a black man who could raise those issues and do it within the context of economic program that doesn't make him play defense to the Republicans?" said Squier, who most recently worked on Ann Richards' campaign for governor of Texas.
However Walters said Wilder's only domestic agenda seems to be cutting budgets. "How can you run as a social liberal without a strong domestic program and attract Democrats across the board?"
Squier said another reason to take Wilder seriously is his chief political adviser, state Democratic Party chairman Paul Goldman. "He's got a political director who knows what he's doing," said Squier, who compared Goldman to Hamilton Jordan, who organized Jimmy Carter's longshot presidential campaign in 1976.
Even those analysts who doubt Wilder's electability say Wilder's move could force other potential Democratic candidates into the field earlier than they had planned. "The fact that he's entered forces people to put up or shut up," Schneider said.
"The timing is perfect," Squier said. "Just at the moment everyone is saying, `Where are the Democratic candidates?' and you get a Greek re-run from Massachussets [former Sen. Paul Tsongas], bang, Wilder forms a committee."
Analysts said Wilder's move puts special pressure on the two most prominent but most reluctant candidates - New York Gov. Mario Cuomo and Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen - to make up their minds.
"What the party needs is someone confident and bold," Marshall said. "There's a lot of timidity and hesitancy out here."
Wilder's move also could inconvenience the Democratic national chairman, Ron Brown, who has said he would discourage any candidates he did not think could win. "Doug Wilder puts a lot of people up against the wall by taking this tentative step but serious step," Walters said.
The committee Wilder formed is headed by two of his closest political allies, Goldman and Mark Warner, a Northern Virginia businessman who managed Wilder's gubernatorial campaign in 1989.
Warner said Wednesday he does not have an indication from Wilder that he will definitely run, "but we have not been discouraged."
The exploratory committee will raise money for Wilder to mount a national effort, replacing the "Committee for Fiscal Responsibility in 1992," which was formed last year by the same two men. Warner said the committee announced Wednesday will not accept contributions from political action committees.
"The problem comes as a result of people wanting to send in checks from all over the country," Wilder said.
"We are at a disadvantage because we cannot accept money like other governors or senators who have re-election campaigns set up," Warner said. "We've had people calling asking about sending money, but I've had to tell them that anything they sent could not be used on the national level. Now, I can start calling them back."
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB