Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, April 7, 1991 TAG: 9104080193
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: D/1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Dwayne Yancey, Rob Eure and Kevin Kreneck / staff
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
\ YOU CAN'T KEEP TRACK OF THE PLAYERS WITHOUT A SCORECARD
\ The Democrats don't have many players - yet. Jumping in early to try to pre-empt the field is "classic [Douglas] Wilder," says University of Richmond analyst Tom Morris. But anybody who fancies himself a president won't be scared off by Wilder the way Virginia Democrats were in '85 and '89. The first big question for Wilder is who elose is running, who might be, and how their candidacies will affect his. Here's a run down:
\ IN THE RACE
\ DOUGLAS WILDER: As the nation's first black elected governor, Wilder is a bona fide celebrity who draws big crowds wherever he goes. His call for fiscal restraint gives him one of the clearest messages of any Democrat, even if it does cut against the party's grain. He's sure to stand out, but does a first-term governor really have presidential stature?
\ PAUL TSONGAS: the former Massachusetts senator has the misfortune to be from the same state and same ethnic background as Michael Dukakis. "There is some initial rolling of the eyes," Tsongas concedes. But among insiders he's regarded as one of the first neo-liberals, which means he's a liberal who says Democrats must be pro-business. Serious-minded, but will be taken seriously?
\ A LOCK FOR RE-ELECTION?
GEORGE BUSH: Riding high in the polls with approval ratings in the 90 percent range, President Bush seems unbeatable, even if there is a recession. Democrats can only hope that a year from now, voters will have forgotten about the war and will be riled up about the economy. If not? There's always '96.
\ POTENTIALS
\ MARIO CUOMO: If Hamlet on the Hudson finally takes the plunge, he instantly overshadows everybody. But as the last great hope of the old-fashioned liberals, the New York governor doesn't impinge on the middle-of-the-ground turf Wilder hopes to stake out. Besides, Wilder has been sniping at Cuomo for a year now anyway. He's in fighting trim.
\ JESSIE JACKSON: The feeling is that Jackson has maxed out his potential; Wilder can only take votes away from him. The question is: How many? A Wilder-Jackson scramble for black voters could become a national spectacle. but is Jackson decides not to run, Wilder may inherit the black vote by default and start with 30 percent or more of the vote in some Southern primaries.
\ ALBERT GORE: The Tennessee senator was ridiculed as Prince Albert last time around, but he won a bunce of states and he voted for the war, which makes Gore the strongest potential moderate in the field. If Gore runs, he and Wilder could be on a collision course for the center. If he doesn't, does that make Wilder the Southern candidate?
\ THE CALENDAR
\ 1991
\ This is the "underground primary," a time for making contracts, raising money, honing a stump speech. It could take until fall, though, when Jackson and others have said they'll make up their minds, for the field to fill out. By then, look for the serious candidates to have organizations in place, stroefronts open and phone banks making calls in the early states.
\ 1992
\ Like most long-shot candidates, Wilder hopes to get hot in the early states and ride the momentum to the quick knockout, just like another Southerner, Jimmy Carter, did in '76. That strategy backfired for candidates in '88, though. But, if he catches on, the schedule may work more to Wilder's advantage than it does his opponents.
\ IOWA: Feb. 10 or 17
\ The opening caucuses here tend to be dominated by liberal activists who may not cotton to Wilder's fiscal conservatism. However, the two candidates most likely to shoulder Wilder out of the way aren't strong here, either. Without a black base there, Jackson has never staked much on Iowa. And Gore miffed Iowans by skipping the state altogether in '88. Sometimes it doesn't take much of a showing to gain momentum either. Gary Hart won just 14 percent in Iowa in '84, but was the big winner in the media's eyes.
\ NEW HAMPSHIRE: Feb. 18 or 25
\ With its almost pathological aversion to taxes, this is more Wilder's kind of state. A Northeastern candidate would have a home-turf advantage, but that also creates higher expectations. Just ask Ed Muskie. A recent poll in the nation's first primary put Cuomo at 13 percent, with no one else in double digits. Wilder came in at 1 percent, behind even George McGovern and Texax billionaire H. Ross Perot. Clearly, he's got some work to do.
\ SUPER TUESDAY: March 10
\ Not as super as it was in '88, but still super enough - and still mostly Southern, with primaries and caucuses in 10 or 12 states, including biggies Texas and Florida. If Wilder could get a "slingshot" ride out of New Hampshire, this is where he could really clean up - or hit the wall. The key is jackson. In '88, the black vote alone was enough for him to carry many Southern states in a splintered field. If jackson doesn't run, Wilder could start in the lead, and unlike Jackson, have a chance to pick up white votes. But if both Jackson and Gore are in the race, will Wilder pull votes from both sides, or will he simply get shunted aside?
\ CONVENTIONS: Aug. 17-20
\ Democrats: New York, July 13-16.
Republicans: Houston, Aug. 17-20.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB