Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, January 9, 1992 TAG: 9201090603
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
GRACEFUL EXIT MAY BE A WINNING MOVE
The big winners from Gov. Douglas Wilder's withdrawal from the presidential race may be Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton - and Wilder himself.Wilder's abrupt exit opens the way for Clinton to nail down support from black voters in the key Southern primaries in early March and put together a coalition of blacks and moderates similar to the one that delivered the nomination to another Southerner, Jimmy Carter, in 1976.
But by getting out early - and gracefully - Wilder also may preserve his chances to play on the national stage again, if not in a presidential campaign, then perhaps in a Cabinet post or some other role.
That's the quick-reaction consensus of Democratic operatives and political analysts around the country.
"The two things I see are that the Democratic nomination is going to get settled far earlier than we have ever seen historically and that Doug Wilder is a very smart man," said Ann Lewis, a Boston political consultant who was an adviser to Jesse Jackson in 1988.
"His campaign wasn't going anywhere and he knew it, and he made the decision more candidates ought to do more often: [to] get out and concentrate on the rest of his political future."
It could be a bright one, she said, even if Wilder's presidential campaign went nowhere. "By getting out early, and in some graceful form, he positions himself to come back later to seek a Democratic nomination, and I think he'd be a great addition to somebody's Cabinet."
Joe Grandmaisson, a former state party chairman in New Hampshire, home to the nation's first presidential primary on Feb. 18, agreed. "My hope is that he does become relevant on the national political scene. I thought some of his ideas, although not fully developed, had considerable merit, and because he had a different view to fiscal issues, I thought it important that view be part of the debate."
Wilder's low approval ratings at home dimmed his national political star.
"I don't know if he's got a future or not," said Merle Black, a political analyst at Emory University in Atlanta. "It always baffled me, someone running for president who couldn't even be assured of carrying their own state. His fundamental problem was his lack of political support in Virginia."
But Tom Cowley, executive director of the Maryland Democratic Party, a state in which Wilder had been leading in the polls on the basis of strong black support, predicted Wilder's popularity could rebound now that he's out of the race.
"My own view is, he'll still be remembered as the first black elected governor," Cowley said. "Getting back to Richmond, he can prove he can run the state well, and that's going to stand him in great stead in the eyes of other Democrats around the country."
But the question Wednesday for Democrats around the country wasn't where Wilder goes next, but where his supporters go.
He was barely a blip on the screen in New Hampshire, registering about 1 percent in the polls there.
But Wilder has worked hard to mobilize black voters around the country. He wasn't nearly as successful as a previous black candidate, Jesse Jackson, had been. Still, Wilder was potentially a force in the Southern primaries in early March. He even led recent polls in Maryland and South Carolina.
Some analysts assumed black voters now will wind up in Clinton's camp. Of the Democrats' three first-tier candidates - Clinton, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin - only Clinton has experience in appealing to black voters, Black said.
"Clinton will now be in a position to put together a racial coalition across the Southern states like he's done in Arkansas," Black said. "He's been the most successful practitioner of racial coalition politics. Harkin has never done that; Kerrey has never done that."
That's why Lewis and others think Clinton now has a chance to put the nomination in the bag early.
"Clinton was going to get some of the black vote even with Wilder in the race," Black said. "If he could do that, and if he could win in New Hampshire and some states before heading South, he could become the kind of consensus candidate the Democrats tried to get in '88."
Or the way Carter was in '76.
But that's no sure thing.
"We thought Harkin was the big gainer when [New York Gov. Mario] Cuomo didn't run, and to my surprise, the candidate that has done the best since Cuomo told us he wasn't running has been Bill Clinton," Lewis said.
"I think it's wide open," said Atlanta pollster Claibourne Darden. "Black voters usually go in a big bloc and they usually tend to one of the more liberal candidates."
That would be Harkin, a traditional New Deal Democrat, and not Clinton, who has headed a group of moderate Democrats trying to re-make the party's image.
"There is no candidate who would receive an absolute clear advantage," Cowley said. "The guess is Harkin and Clinton are both aggressively pursuing the minority vote, but I'm not sure anyone has an advantage over the others."
Keywords:
POLITICS