Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: FRIDAY, March 13, 1992                   TAG: 9203130190
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: A-7   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

SURGING SALES FUEL REVIVAL HOPES

One economist said robust sales - from car dealers to department stores - were "ample evidence" of a revival despite a separate report showing volatile jobless claims rising anew.

"The big jump in retail sales in February [along with a huge upward revision of the January figure] is ample evidence that the economy is emerging from the doldrums," said John M. Albertine, head of a Washington economic forecasting company. "The recovery has definitely begun."

"One can conclude the recovery is on firm footing . . . that the likelihood of a double-dip [recession] has been greatly reduced," said Samuel D. Kahan, an economist with Fuji Securities in Chicago.

The Commerce Department report showed sales of such items as apparel, appliances and cars totaled a seasonally adjusted $157.7 billion in February.

Analysts noted that sales in January jumped a revised 2.1 percent, to $155.6 billion, much stronger than the 0.6 percent in its initial estimate a month earlier. The increase was the steepest since a 2.2 percent gain in February 1991.

The back-to-back gains were the first totaling more than 1 percent each month since 1985, when sales rose 1.1 percent in August and 2.7 percent in September.

Most analysts agree that economic growth this year will be about half of the 6 percent averaged during the first year of recoveries from other post-World War II recessions.

The report showed:

Car dealers, who experienced their worst year in 1991 since the 1981-82 recession, reported the third consecutive monthly gain. Sales rose 1.4 percent after advancing 2.5 percent in January and 0.2 percent in December.

Excluding the automotive category, sales rose 1.3 percent.

Sales of durable goods, items expected to last more than three years, rose 2.3 percent, slightly less than the 2.8 percent advance in January.

Building-material and hardware-store sales jumped 5.7 percent after a 3.9 percent January gain.

Stores selling furniture, appliances and other home furnishings posted a 1.3 percent gain following a 2.5 percent advance.

Sales of non-durable goods rose 0.8 after a 1.7 percent increase.

Department stores rang up a 1.4 percent increase in February, down from a 7.3 percent jump a month earlier. Clothing stores registered a 2.3 percent gain on top of a 1.6 percent advance in January.

"Sales are beginning to get a little stronger," said Bill Gaines, the manager of a Sears Roebuck outlet in Fredricksburg. "Customers are beginning to feel a little more confident in spending."

But, Gaines said, "The economy still has a lot of pickup [to do] before it gets back to where we want to see it. There's a lot of unemployment out there."

Restaurant and bar sales inched up 0.1 percent after falling 0.2 percent in January. Drug store sales rose 1.2 percent following a 0.1 percent gain in January.

Grocers saw their sales fall 0.8 percent, erasing a 0.3 percent increase in January.