Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, March 8, 1993 TAG: 9303080118
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A1 EDITION: STATE
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
BY THE NUMBERS, IT'S ALL BUT OVER FOR UPDIKE CANDIDACY
Bedford County prosecutor Jim Updike is close to being mathematically eliminated from his race for attorney general even before Virginia Democrats select the first convention delegate.That's because Updike's shoestring campaign, in an organizational rout over the weekend, simply failed to round up supporters to run as delegates on his behalf in many localities across the state.
As a result, Arlington lawyer Bill Dolan claimed Sunday he will win at least 1,490 convention delegates by default - just 261 short of the 1,751 it takes to win the nomination.
And the number of delegates Dolan wins by default could go even higher today, when the deadline for each campaign to file its list of supporters seeking election as convention delegates expires in 93 more localities. At stake there are a total of 1,249 delegates to the May convention.
Updike campaign manager Billy Sublett downplayed Updike's inability to file prospective delegates, charging the deadline to file prospective deadline had been marred by procedural mix-ups that kept Updike from getting his people on the ballot in some localities.
Sublett hinted that the Updike campaign might file challenges to force the party to extend the deadline, and so the big number of Dolan delegates running uncontested didn't mean much.
"These are a couple guys at the edge of the herd trying to create a stampede," he said.
But that's not the way the numbers were seen by many party leaders across the state.
"It's essentially over," said 2nd Congressional District Chairman Ken Geroe of Virginia Beach. He called on Updike to withdraw to avoid further humiliation. "What's the point of continuing? If it's not a [mathematical] certainty now, it damn well will be Tuesday."
The mass meetings to select those convention delegates don't start until Saturday, but the deadline for both Updike and Dolan to file the list of their supporters seeking election as convention delegates expired in many localities over the weekend.
Usually, that filing deadline is a formality of interest only to party insiders. But Updike, in a development that stunned some Dolan strategists, could only produce a relative handful of names outside his base in Western Virginia.
State party headquarters said official tallies probably won't be available until Tuesday. But Dolan's campaign gave these numbers, which were confirmed by spot checks in key localities:
So far, the deadline has passed for people to file for the 2,251 delegate slots available from 47 mostly urban localities in Northern Virginia, Richmond, Tidewater and the Roanoke Valley. Dolan has filed the names of 2,011 supporters to run as delegates on his behalf; Updike only 413.
Another 203 prospective delegates not committed to either candidate have also filed to win election in the upcoming mass meetings.
By Dolan's count, that means 1,490 delegates pledged to him are running unopposed and guaranteed of election.
From the beginning, Updike had conceded he was an underdog against the well-known and well-financed Dolan. But his strategists had claimed they were mounting a "guerrilla campaign" that would bypass party leaders and round up support from labor unions. But that support from unions apparently didn't materialize.
In some ways, even Updike's paltry figure is inflated. In Hampton Roads, many of the people who filed to run as delegates for him apparently were recruited not by the Updike campaign, but the organization of political extremist Lyndon LaRouche.
But Sublett, Updike's campaign manager, claimed the Updike campaign tried to file some delegates on its own in Norfolk, but missed the deadline. "We will challenge that," he vowed.
However, he conceded it was hard for Updike, with his late start and little name recognition, to mount a strong challenge to Dolan in the state's urban corridor. He predicted Updike would show more organizational strength in rural areas, where most of the filing deadlines don't expire until today.
Keywords:
POLITICS