Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, March 8, 1993 TAG: 9303080120
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
BY THE NUMBERS, IT'S ALL BUT OVER FOR UPDIKE CANDIDACY
Bedford County prosecutor Jim Updike is close to being mathematically eliminated from his race for attorney general even before Virginia Democrats select the first convention delegate.That's because Updike's shoestring campaign, in an organizational rout over the weekend, failed to round up supporters to run as delegates on his behalf in many localities across the state.
As a result, Arlington lawyer Bill Dolan claimed Sunday he will win at least 1,490 convention delegates by default - just 261 short of the 1,751 it takes to win the nomination.
And the number of delegates Dolan wins by default could go even higher today, when the deadline for each campaign to file its list of supporters seeking election as convention delegates expires in 93 more localities. At stake there are a total of 1,249 delegates to the May Updike convention.
Updike Campaign Manager Billy Sublett downplayed Updike's inability to file prospective delegates, charging that the deadline had been marred by procedural mix-ups that kept Updike from getting his people on the ballot in some localities.
He said the Updike campaign might file challenges to force the party to extend the deadline, so the big number of Dolan delegates running uncontested doesn't mean much.
"These are a couple guys at the edge of the herd trying to create a stampede," Sublett said of the Dolan campaign.
But that's not the way the numbers were seen by many party leaders across the state.
"It's essentially over," said 2nd Congressional District Chairman Ken Geroe of Virginia Beach. He called on Updike to withdraw to avoid further humiliation. "What's the point of continuing? If it's not a [mathematical] certainty now, it damn well will be Tuesday."
"It appears Bill Dolan has the nomination and Jim would certainly be wise to get behind the nominee," agreed 9th Congressional District Chairman Gary Hancock of Pulaski.
The mass meetings to select convention delegates don't start until Saturday, but the deadline for both Updike and Dolan to file the list of their supporters seeking election as delegates expired in many localities over the weekend.
Usually, that filing deadline is a formality of interest only to party insiders. But Updike, in a development that stunned some Dolan strategists, apparently could produce only a relative handful of names outside his base in Western Virginia.
State party headquarters said official tallies won't be available until Tuesday, and Updike strategists - in one sign of their organizational weakness - said they had no idea how many people had filed on their behalf. But the Dolan campaign provided these numbers, which Updike's campaign manager said he couldn't dispute:
So far, the filing deadline has passed for 2,251 of the 3,500 delegate slots available. Dolan has filed the names of 2,011 supporters to run on his behalf; Updike only 413. Another 203 prospective delegates not committed to either candidate have also filed.
By Dolan's count, about 1,490 of the prospective delegates pledged to him are running unopposed and guaranteed of election.
Here's how that works:
Take Richmond, which sends 170 delegates to the convention. Dolan filed a full slate of 170 prospective delegates; Updike filed only 12. That means, sals state party Executive Director Kathy Bowles, no matter how many supporters Updike turns out at the Richmond mass meeting on Saturday, the most delegates he can get elected from there is 12 - and Dolan would get the remaining 158 by default. And if Dolan turns out a bigger crowd than Updike, he'd win all 170.
In some ways, even Updike's paltry figure is inflated. In Hampton Roads, Geroe said, many of the people who filed to run as delegates for Updike apparently were recruited not by the Updike campaign, but the organization of political extremist Lyndon LaRouche. The evidence: On the filing forms, they pledged to back LaRouche organizer Nancy Spannaus for governor.
From the beginning, Updike had conceded he was an underdog against the well-connected and well-financed Dolan, who has spent five years traveling the state to woo Democratic activists. But Updike's strategists had claimed they were mounting a "guerrilla campaign" that would bypass party leaders partial to Dolan and seek support from labor unions. But apparently those unions didn't sign up many members to run as delegates for him.
Sublett conceded it was hard for Updike, with his late start and little name recognition, to mount a strong challenge to Dolan in the state's urban corridor. But he predicted Updike would show more organizational strength in rural areas, where most of the filing deadlines don't expire until today.
But some party leaders said that wouldn't matter. Updike should drop out to "engender good will," Geroe said. "Or he can tilt at windmills."
Keywords:
POLITICS