Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, March 25, 1993 TAG: 9303250580
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-15 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: RAY L. GARLAND
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
TAKING THE MEASURE OF GOP TICKET HOPEFULS
FORMER U.S. REP. George Allen of Albemarle County says he already has enough delegates committed to him to win the Republican nomination for governor. But a spokesman for challenger Earle C. Williams of Fairfax says "nuts" to that. The third man in the contest, Del. Clint Miller of Shenandoah, claims there's "no way" any of the three will go into the Richmond convention June 4-5 with sufficient delegates to win a first-ballot victory.Not much is being heard from candidates for the GOP nominations for lieutenant governor and attorney general, but steady campaigns are being waged on these fronts between a pair of candidates for both offices.
In the contest to oppose Lt. Gov. Don Beyer we find Bobbie Kilberg, late of the Bush White House, and Michael Farris, president and founder of the Home School Legal Defense Association. This race has drawn a fair amount of press attention, because it's seen as a test of whether the GOP will hold fast with the religious right as represented by Farris or groove with Kilberg somewhere in the middle of the social-issues debate.
Almost off the radar screen is found the intraparty struggle between Del. Steve Agee of Salem and Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney James Gilmore for the honor of trying to become only the second Republican this century to hold the office of attorney general. Neither man has generated enough heat to warm a broom closet, but both have done some subtle positioning.
Agee presents himself as an experienced legislator who believes that Republican chances in recent state elections have been less than enhanced by pushing ideological, hot-button issues. He points out that GOP victories in statewide races in the period 1969-77 came under candidates drawn from the party's moderate or mountain-valley wing - a tradition to which he presents
himself as the logical heir.
In reality, if Agee has failed to make a great impression during 10 years in the House of Delegates, he has compiled a respectable record that would cause few conservatives much grief.
Gilmore apparently sees the job of attorney general more as the state's top cop, and is emphasizing the tough-on-crime stance he has fashioned as Henrico prosecutor. This is somewhat a misrepresentation of the job, as Agee has pointed out.
While the office of attorney general represents the commonwealth in all criminal appeals, the bulk of its work is civil in nature. But public confusion on this point is understandable since recent attorneys general (Mary Sue Terry, in particular) have spent a great deal of time identifying with tougher sanctions against malefactors.
One thing is certain: If interest in the gubernatorial nomination is sustained and goes down to the wire, an awful lot of people could show up in Richmond. Of a potential 8,166 delegates, 7,705 are said to be already chosen under party rules encouraging almost anyone whose name was entered to be elected a delegate.
Allen and Williams have had the staff and money to round them up in droves. There have been reports from party regulars of many new faces showing up, and no one is quite sure whether these were flushed out by the gubernatorial candidates or by Farris.
But getting names is one thing. Persuading people to spend the time and money required to attend the convention is another matter entirely. Here we gain the measure of who has the best campaign apparatus and where the stronger passions lie.
The Virginia GOP's recent history seems to tell us that in a race with more than two candidates, the front-runner must have the nomination locked up going in or run the grave risk of having his opponents combine against him. That would explain Allen's ploy in claiming victory based on a poll of delegates already chosen.
But there's logic in assuming it will be hard to deny Allen the nomination. First, he has many party regulars in his camp, including numerous unit chairmen and elected officials. Second, he has taken the purest pro-life stance among the candidates for governor and stands to inherit the lion's share of the party's strong anti-abortion wing. Third, after his winning four terms to the House of Delegates and a tricky special election in 1991 to the U.S. House of Representatives, no one can seriously maintain he's untested or unqualified.
Aside from the obvious difficulty of convincing the smart-money boys they can win where nine previous Republican candidates in the statewide elections of 1981, 1985 and 1989 have failed, it is abortion once again that divides and troubles the GOP. In trying to jump-start his campaign, Miller has gone so far as to propose that the anti-abortion plank be removed from the Republican platform, leaving the issue "between a woman, her doctor and God."
But Allen has been careful to stake out a position on abortion that should satisfy a majority of wavering voters. The difficulty will come in selling it if Mary Sue Terry makes abortion rights a focal point of her campaign.
In recent years, Democrats have enjoyed great success in framing the terms of this debate and Republicans have been almost tongue-tied in response. In a purely tactical sense, there's little the GOP can gain by me-tooing the Democrats. The trick is to articulate clearly that you accept abortion up to a point, but not abortion on demand. Then, it's the other side that holds the extreme position.
The immediate problem Allen faces is to collect the support of pro-lifers without having to accept Farris on the ticket. At this point, few Republicans believe either candidate for lieutenant governor would beat Beyer, but many believe that Farris could be the fuse that blows up the whole ticket.
Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times & World-News columnist.