Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SATURDAY, March 27, 1993 TAG: 9303270085
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: A-4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
Richard B. McKenzie, who teaches at the University of California's Graduate School of Management at Irvine, sent missives by fax between Irvine and Washington, D.C., and found that a single page can be faxed for as little as a dime or as much as 25 cents. Either is cheaper than a first-class stamp.
But McKenzie didn't take into account the cost of fax paper, which is as much as a nickel a sheet, though it's paid for by the recipient, not the sender. Nor did he factor in the cost of the machine itself, usually at least $250 or the price of 862 first-class stamps.
The cost competition depends upon whether the fax is sent during daytime, weekday hours when telephone charges are highest or weekends and nights when they're lowest.
Faxing three pages cost a minimum of 23 cents at the cheapest times and a maximum of 50 cents at the highest phone rates. The message completed its rounds in 82 seconds.
Sending four pages cost 52 cents in postage, but only half that at night phone rates. At weekday rates, the cost was 50 cents.
With each additional page, daytime faxing was more expensive than first-class mail, but night faxing was almost always cheaper than postage. Each page had 252 typewritten words (the more words, the longer it takes to transmit a page.)
The big bargain is faxing across town. Within a local telephone calling area, the cost is zero to the sender if the phone company doesn't charge by the call.
The Postal Service acknowledged that the facsimile machine has cut into the growth of its volume.
"We expect first-class mail to grow moderately 1 to 2 percent over the next several years. In the '80s, we were running 3-4 percent and some years higher," said Kent Smith, market research analyst for the Postal Service. He said the recession and the last increase in postal rates also were responsible.
Smith projects fax volume will grow 20 to 30 percent over the next few years, "and we'll plug along at 1 to 2 percent."
But no one expects the fax to replace the postman. At BIS Strategic Decisions, a market research house in Norwell, Mass., researcher Judy Pirani forecasts that only 5 percent to 10 percent of homes will have fax machines by 1996, and most of those will belong to people who work from their homes.
About 7.4 million fax machines are in place now.
The Postal Service's Smith said faxing often is used where mail never has been - to send ahead an order for carryout lunch or to ask a radio station to play a song.
The fax has an indisputable edge in speed, but McKenzie said that has a downside. It can wipe out "the information float - the time between when you get rid of a problem by sending a letter and when you get a reply and have to deal with it again."
"Now," he said, "you fax a letter to Washington and the problem is back on your desk in a matter of minutes."
by CNB