Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, August 30, 1993 TAG: 9308300155
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: From The Washington Post, The Associated Press and The Fort Lauderdal
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
A watch means hurricane conditions pose a threat. A warning means hurricane conditions with sustained wind of more than 74 mph are expected within 24 hours.
At 11 p.m. Sunday, Emily's center was near latitude 31.6 north and longitude 70.5 west, or about 390 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C.
The National Hurricane Center said the storm appeared most likely to hit North Carolina early Tuesday near Cape Hatteras and Morehead City. But Jerry Jarrell, the center's deputy director, said Emily easily could choose several other paths, including a northward route away from land.
A lot depends on what Emily does early today. If it heads west, North Carolina and Virginia are in trouble, Jarrell said. "If it heads more north, we're looking at something with a `New' in it. New Jersey, New York and New England could be at risk."
Jarrell said forecasters will probably issue a hurricane warning this morning, predicting hurricane-force winds for the affected area within 24 hours. Sunday night, Hyde County officials ordered 2,500 people, mostly vacationers, to evacuate North Carolina's Ocracoke Island. A 2 1/2-hour ferry ride is the only way to get from that island to the mainland.
Officials for Dare County, which takes in most of the Outer Banks, warned residents and vacationers to prepare for an evacuation order this morning.
Emily does not have nearly the force of either Hurricane Hugo, which caused 27 deaths in Charleston in 1989, or Hurricane Andrew, which a year ago became the nation's most costly natural disaster. Meteorologists predict Emily's winds will be between 96 and 110 mph when the storm hits land. Andrew had sustained winds of 145 mph with 175 mph gusts. Hugo's winds hit 135 mph.
But Emily's rain could trigger life-threatening flooding, particularly in areas that abut the Appalachian Mountains, said Dean Churchill, a meteorology professor at the University of Miami.
Still, the storm's expected path worries meteorologists. Emily appears to be heading for hard-to-evacuate coastal towns and then, possibly, the nation's most-populated region.
If there is one thing unique about Emily, it may be the respect coastal residents and vacationers are giving it.
"Especially with the scare of Hurricane Andrew, everyone has their eyes open this year," said Debbie Reed, an emergency management aide for New Hanover County, which includes Wilmington, N.C.
On the Outer Banks, there was a noticeable lack of bluster about the storm. Some vacationers packed up and hit the road. "It's not a big panic to leave, but there are people canceling their reservations and cutting short their vacations," said Russell Chaplain, owner of the Castaways Ocean Front Inn on Hatteras Island.
The northbound traffic on the two-lane road off the island was one sign. Another was the difference in motel vacancy rates between Saturday night and Sunday night. The Castaways was full Saturday night, just like "everything else here on the island, every cottage, every motel room," Chaplain said. Sunday night, the place was only two-thirds occupied and the books showed at least 15 cancellations.
At the local grocery store on North Carolina's Emerald Isle, assistant manager Mike Russell tracked the storm's progress with a meteorologist's love of data. He served as a one-man hurricane tracking center, the forecaster of the Food Dock Market.
While the National Hurricane Center waited until 5 p.m. to issue a formal hurricane watch, Russell was ready with his prediction hours earlier. The run on milk and water would come late in the afternoon, he predicted; by early today, the store would be boarded up and Emerald Isle pretty much deserted.
by CNB