Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, October 3, 1993                   TAG: 9310010018
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: F-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: JOHN LEVIN
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

PAY RAISES UP ONLY 4%, BUT LAYOFFS DOWN 10%

Among the first projections are that pay raises will range from 4 percent for hourly workers to 4.3 percent for top managers, according to a recent poll by Towers Perrin, a New York management consultant. It surveyed 1,750 U.S. organizations, finding figures that are down from 4.1 percent actually paid this year to rank-and-file workers and up from 4.2 percent awarded the executives.

Another clue came last week in the agreement United Parcel Service reached with the Teamsters, the union representing 165,000 of the parcel delivery company's workers, including some in the Roanoke Valley. Under that pact, the hourly pay will rise over four years by $2.25 from the current $17.70.

In 1994, UPS union workers will get 3.4 percent pay increases, equal to 60 cents an hour in cash, plus 40 cents an hour worth of benefits.

"People are not going to spend big-time," said Mary Houska, a labor economist on Hollins College's faculty. "Wages will be very conservative."

But Houska said she's generally optimistic about the economy and predicted the next round of layoffs may be the last big wave of job cuts as American industry completes its adjustment to global competition.

A survey by the American Management Association, which found that 40 percent of 870 major U.S. companies plan layoffs in 1994. The good news is that's down from 50 percent this year.

"I'm optimistic about 1994," Houska said. "I realize people are going to continue to lose their jobs and things will be uncertain."

Indeed, "things are not going to feel better for a while. I don't know if any of use will feel as secure as we did for so many years."

But what's been accomplished, Houska said, is a repositioning of American business against Japanese and European competitors. Many U.S. companies now are more efficient producers of higher quality goods and are ready to invest in new plants that ultimately will produce more jobs. She counts as anecdotal evidence four Hollins students who graduated in June to starting salaries over $30,000. Those jobs are with business sectors still considered among the downsizing: a defense consultant who now is advising others on conversion to civilian business, a hotel company, a securities brokerage and a federal government agency.

Starting pay that high hasn't been common since 1985, Houska said. "Since then, if a student got $22,000, we were slapping ourselves on the back."

They were four especially aggressive young women from a class of about 245, Houska said. But "those who actively went out and looked came away with good jobs."

"There's more optimism in general," said Bruce Wood, president of the Management Association of Western Virginia, a Roanoke-based employer's organization.

"I see some folks grabbing hold and making things happen," he said. Companies have used the lull "to build infrastructure, train and consolidate, things that they don't have time to do when things are moving at a faster clip."

Some Roanoke-area companies are adding more temporary and part-time workers, said Coy Renick, human resources manager for Vitramon Inc. and president of the Roanoke Valley Society of Human Resources Management.

That, he said, suggests caution as well as optimism, but is a clear signal that companies need more personnel.

Will it someday again mean full-time, good-paying jobs?

"You're scared to say much," Renick said, "for fear your luck will go the other way."