Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, October 7, 1993 TAG: 9403180003
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-15 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Ray L. Garland
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Nothing too much, according to a just-published Washington Post poll, which showed her leading George Allen by two points. But if past Post polls are any guide, they contain a large bias favoring Democratic candidates. That could indicate anything from a sizable Allen lead to a dead heat. The significant story is, of course, that Terry once held a seemingly invincible advantage in public support and campaign funds.
I have believed from day one that the outcome of this election depended less on what Allen did and more on the attitude of swing voters toward Democrats in general. As President Clinton sank in late spring, the way was opened for the same thing to happen to Terry. A Gergenized White House put the tax battle successfully to bed and concentrated on the sweet dreams of millions of Americans for somebody (anybody but them) to pay the freight for health, and Clinton's numbers are rising again.
But Terry has put so much distance between herself and Clinton that she may now suffer the disdain of diehard Democrats who haven't a kind word for disloyalty. Blacks and organized labor are said to be asking, "What's in it for us?" The idea could be germinating in the core constituencies of the Democratic Party that it might be a good thing for a conservative candidate to go down in order to teach others it doesn't pay to leave them out.
Once a politician believes he's found a winning formula, he is reluctant to change it. In her campaigns for House of Delegates and attorney general, Terry honed the pitch of being a traditional Virginia Democrat in good standing with business and not very comfortable with organized labor. In fact, she has gone out of her way to make plain that she preferred not having the endorsement of the Virginia AFL-CIO.
There is much for a conservative to admire in Terry's campaign for governor. On the subject of taxes, she has coined a useful phrase, saying she couldn't support a tax increase simply to support "existing services." She has shown courage in steadfastly resisting claims by thousands of federal retirees living in Virginia for a $500-million bonanza - deriving from their victory in the case challenging state policy that taxed federal pensions while exempting those earned by state employees. She is also to be commended for telling the Virginia Governmental Employees Association that it would be "irresponsible and reckless to stand before you and promise traditional raises."
Terry's campaign to date might be summarized this way: As your attorney general for seven years I have shown competence and responsibility; as your governor I'll do the same; if my campaign seems dull and uninspiring, too bad; it would be wrong to promise that which I cannot deliver.
My source inside the Terry campaign indicates they're reaching the "all hands on deck" mode traditional in shipwrecks. While a sharper focus and a little less silliness in TV ads would doubtless be helpful, the temptation now will be to "go negative." We may expect a coordinated attack, characterizing the Republican candidates as willing captives of the extreme right, positively salivating at the prospect of destroying public education and stopping all abortions.
There is, of course, that other possibility of using television to develop traditional Democratic themes, promising larger helpings for the downtrodden. But that would be so far out of character for Terry as to risk, at this late hour, hoots of derision.
Smith paid Allen a possibly unintended compliment when he said, "This isn't the kind of candidate that the Republicans are used to running." Then came the dreaded word "populist," which was supposed to be that brand of politics on which Democrats held the patent. "As long as you're running against a populist candidate who's willing to give everything to everybody without a tax increase," Smith said, "well that's just an irresponsible candidate." Al, did you vote for Bill?
If Allen has been a real populist it's more than I can see. But whatever he's been doing that raised Smith's ire, he needs to do more of it. The combustibles are all in place to light a fire under the Democrats, starting with the fact that state spending on their watch has increased far faster than population growth plus inflation. That is, to keep asking the question, "If all this money hasn't been enough to do the job, why not?"
Then, there are the issues that Terry herself raised in her speech before state employees, such as mismanaging the introduction of new health insurance for more than 100,000 state workers and politicizing the Virginia Retirement System. Finally, we have the judgment of Democratic leaders in the legislature called into question over potential conflict-of-interest from investments with a prominent insurance lobbyist and serious revelations of mismanagement in refurbishing a state office building.
What Allen must do is close the sale by driving home the point that the time has come for a fresh broom and a clean sweep in Richmond. He, too, must go negative. But not against Terry personally, other than noting she is so embedded in what has been that she cannot be an instrument of changing it.
But be forewarned. With all the perquisites Democrats have enjoyed from controlling all branches of state government since 1982 - including a strong majority in Virginia's congressional delegation - they will not go quietly into that sweet night.
Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times & World-News columnist.
Keywords:
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