Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, October 10, 1993 TAG: 9310100085
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: By ROB EURE STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Long
George Allen, her Republican opponent, was delighted to spend the evening talking about crime and economics, and linking Terry to unpopular fellow Democrats.
The course of the 1993 governor's race has been dictated, in large part, by peculiar forces that work in races that feature a woman, say analysts who study such contests.
From Terry's drop in the polls from June to September, to the frenetic pace of changing television commercials, to the constant talk of trust by Terry and parole by Allen, the race shows classic features of contests involving women, they say.
But Terry is testing new ground by running an attack campaign and concentrating strongly on crime herself - tactics previously seen as benefiting men in elections against women.
And Terry is different personally from most of the women who've preceded her. "Women candidates traditionally came from fields such as education or human resources," said Pat Reilly of the National Women's Political Caucus. Terry is a lawyer who has been in politics since her late 20s.
Despite high-profile races featuring women in recent years - 1992 was dubbed the "Year of the Woman" by Democrats, and 38 women in 36 states are viewed as serious contenders for governorships in 1994 - the history of women as governors is short.
Twelve women have held the office. Three were elected in 1990: Ann Richards in Texas, Barbara Roberts in Oregon and Joan Finney in Kansas. Along with Terry, Republican Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey is running this year.
How women should run is an area of political theory still unfolding, said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist.
The effect of women candidacies on voters is difficult for pollsters to measure. "People are actually more willing to talk about race than gender," Sabato said.
In general, women running against men seem to enjoy an advantage among women voters, but often they lose nearly as many men's votes.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., a former San Francisco mayor, had her slight advantage among women in the 1990 California governor's race more than erased by men's votes for Republican Pete Wilson. Two years later, Feinstein claimed 64 percent of the women's vote to win one of the state's two U.S. Senate seats. Her fellow Democrat, Sen. Barbara Boxer, captured the second seat with a much narrower slice of the women's vote, 57 percent, despite a liberal ideology many thought more in line with the state's women voters.
"Voters do distinguish among women candidates on ideology and belief," said Bruce Cain at the Institute of Governmental Studies at Berkeley.
Voters also distinguish between offices and issues. In 1990, Cain said, women Republicans and independents abandoned Feinstein when California's economy went sour and Wilson made crime a central issue.
"Polls show the electorate normally trusts women candidates more. And in my mind, of course, it's a legitimate thing," said Mame Reiley, National Democratic Committeewoman from Virginia.
But in the same polls, voters tend to give a natural advantage to men for toughness. Crime and the economy often are cited by voters as issues they tend to believe men will handle best.
Against that backdrop, it's not hard to see why Terry talks constantly of trust. Her focus as well on violent crime, and her close ties to the state's business establishment, seem calculated to shore up potential weaknesses.
Voters restless for change also tend to see women candidates as the way to achieve it, said Cain.
To mute that, Allen constantly links Terry to Democrats unpopular with many Virginians: President Clinton, Sen. Charles Robb and Gov. Douglas Wilder. Terry has called none of them to campaign at her side and has distanced herself from Wilder and Clinton.
And working in Allen's favor on the change issue may be a reluctance among Virginia voters to have another first after Wilder's historic election as the nation's first black governor, Sabato said.
Ellen Malcolm of Emily's List, a fund-raising organization for women candidates, says Terry is reaching beyond traditional themes for women candidates to a broader platform in stressing crime and her economic plans.
"Women care about the issues of crime, the safety of their children, education and jobs," she said.
Terry also has run a more aggressive campaign than many who have sought the job found they could.
More than half of her commercials have attacked Allen - on the crime issue, his opposition to gun control and his call for abolishing parole. Most analysts expect her to turn up the heat in coming weeks by linking Allen to Christian conservatives and painting him as an extremist.
Such a strategy would have sunk Martha Layne Collins' 1982 gubernatorial campaign in Kentucky, said Crit Luallen, who directed her communication and media efforts.
The Kentuckian "had to do some negative ads," Luallen recalls. "But we'd only put them on for a short time, pull them and replace it with a soft spot, showing her with her children or talking about her parents.
"We'd take a strong swipe, and it would begin to hurt her. She'd drop in the polls," he said. "We changed our media constantly. People don't like to see a woman attacking. For men, they think it's a sign of strength and resolve. If a woman does it, she's bitchy."
Harrison Hickman, the pollster who tracked the effect of Collins' ads on voters, is the same pollster Terry has used in all her statewide races. Democratic sources say that soon after Terry aired her first attack ads this year, Hickman presented her a poll showing her trailing by six percentage points. An angry Terry balled it up and threw it away.
Voters wanted Collins, a former beauty queen, "to remain beautiful," Luallen said. "And we found that women wanted women candidates to be women."
Terry's ad man, Robert Squier, had a different experience in Texas Gov. Ann Richards' 1990 campaign.
Richards ran a nearly exclusively negative television campaign. "I think she had one positive ad the whole campaign," said Ed Martin, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party.
He believes Richards managed the negative attacks "because she has such an earthy personality. She can talk about issues that appeal to 100 percent of the rednecks," he said.
Richards also addressed women's issues "in a very adroit way. She talked about women as victims more than she talked straight at crime," Martin said. "She could deliver that message to women - make it clear that women have a perspective - but at the same time make clear that these are issues that matter to all of us."
Terry is far from earthy, but to date, her campaign has been closer to Richards' than to Collins.' Some analysts believe, however, that Terry risks fighting the final weeks of the campaign on Allen's turf.
Virginia Commonwealth University political scientist Robert Holsworth said he expected Terry to shift gears several weeks ago and begin talking more about her stand in protecting women's abortion rights and linking Allen to the conservative Christian wing of his party.
"That has just got to be coming," Holsworth said.
Terry's own polling shows she holds an advantage among women, particularly those with college educations. But her strength drops dramatically among women 55 and older.
"I suspect it's a generational thing," Martin said. "In Governor Richards' case, she could go on TV with her grandchildren, talk about her parents and mute that problem."
"Women can fall quickly back into stereotypes in voters' perceptions," said Cain at Berkeley.
And once a woman candidate begins to slip in the polls, experience in other campaigns indicates "the bottom just drops out," said Holsworth.
Terry's campaign strategists concede that's what happened to her between June, when she enjoyed a 20 percentage-point advantage over Allen, and September, when the race became a dead heat.
Terry may be counting on a hidden advantage in turnout, however.
Since 1964, more women than men have registered to vote nationally. Polls suggest they tend to remain undecided longer and take a deeper look at issues.
Terry's strategists expect 53 percent of those voting Nov. 2 to be women. If that happens, and Terry maintains her current healthy lead among women, Allen may need a landslide among men to catch her.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB