Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, October 18, 1993 TAG: 9403170021
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A9 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DONALD E. NUECHTERLEIN
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Last fall, the question was constitutional reform, designed to persuade Quebec to remain part of Canada with larger provincial powers. Both French-speaking and English-speaking parts of the country rejected that plan.
This year, the vote is for a new House of Commons in Ottawa, and neither of the two major parties - Liberal or Conservative - is likely to get a majority. That would require a coalition government at a time when Canada's weakened economy and huge unemployment (more than 11 percent) needs strong national leadership.
The major unknown factor in the elections next Monday is how voters in Quebec will decide. In 1988, Quebec voted overwhelmingly for the Conservatives led by Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, a resident of Quebec.
This year, the Conservatives are led by Kim Campbell, the first woman prime minister of Canada and a resident of Vancouver in the West. She does not have Mulroney's appeal in Quebec, although she is more popular in the other provinces.
Canada's Liberal Party, out of power since 1984, hopes it can capitalize on voter dissatisfaction with the party in power.
Though they have pulled ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, the Liberals' concern is that, like the Conservatives, they will not get enough seats in Quebec to win a majority in Parliament. The Liberals' leader, Jean Chretien, is disliked in Quebec even though he is a French-speaking resident. Chretien is viewed there as a strong federalist, not in sympathy with Quebec nationalists.
A new, potentially dangerous element in this election is the appearance of the Bloc Quebecois, the first time an openly secessionist Quebec party has contested a federal election. The Bloc is led by Lucien Bouchard, a nationalist who broke with the Conservatives two years ago after Mulroney failed to support greater autonomy for Quebec.
At the end of September, opinion polls indicated that Bouchard and the Bloc can win most of Quebec's 74 seats in Parliament and hold the balance of power between the Liberals and Conservatives. That would be disastrous for Canada, many observers say, because Bouchard intends to become what the Montreal Gazette called ``Quebec's divorce broker.''
What are the implications for Canada and the United States of a hung Parliament in which Quebec separatists have the votes to bring down any government?
For Canada the question would be whether a new government could last more than six months. One alternative would be for Liberals and Conservatives to form a grand coalition and freeze out the other parties. But that would add to the Bloc's appeal in Quebec, where provincial elections will be held next fall.
If the Parti Quebecois, the provincial counterpart of the Bloc, wins the 1994 race in Quebec, Bouchard says Quebec will simply declare its independence and negotiate later. He aspires to be the president of an independent country.
For the United States, an indecisive outcome of Monday's election and a weak Canadian government spells trouble, in both economic and political terms.
The Liberals are not happy with either the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement of 1988 or the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico. If they form the next government, Chretien says he will renegotiate both agreements.
If Conservatives form a minority government, they may have to ask Washington for trade negotiations because of strong pressure from other parties.
An election win for the Bloc Quebecois in October will force Washington to think seriously about how to deal with an independent Quebec, and what role, if any, it might play in minimizing fall-out from a Canadian divorce.
Quebec's voters may prove this outlook wrong, but English-speaking Canadians are now talking seriously of the possibility that this election could start the breakup of their country.
Donald E. Nuechterlein, a Charlottesville political scientist, is teaching this fall at Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario.
by CNB