Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, October 20, 1993 TAG: 9310200053
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C3 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: ROB EURE STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium
The Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. survey gives Allen a 48 percent-41 percent advantage over Terry, if the election were held now.
"Mason-Dixon is consistent with our polls," Allen's spokesman Ken Stroupe said.
The new poll trims 10 points off the lead a Richmond newspaper poll gave Allen on Sunday. That poll showed Allen up 50 percent to 33 percent. Both campaigns had warned that the Richmond Times-Dispatch poll was inaccurate, showing a much greater lead than either believes he now enjoys.
Tom King, Terry's chief consultant, disputed the 17-point deficit in Sunday's poll but argued that the seven-point Allen lead in the Mason-Dixon survey showed Terry "is fighting back."
King argued that the attack Terry launched last week, linking Allen to the extreme conservative wing of his party and religious leaders such as Virginia Beach broadcaster Pat Robertson, had cut into a larger lead Allen enjoyed about 10 days ago.
But the poll offers conflicting evidence. In questions aimed at measuring voter opinions of the candidates, Terry's unfavorable ratings have increased, while Allen's have remained constant, indicating Allen's counterattacks may carry more weight with voters.
Allen maintains a 44 percent favorable rating, while 24 percent have an unfavorable view of him. Terry's favorable rating is 39 percent, but 38 percent see her unfavorably.
That unfavorable rating is dangerously high for a candidate this close to an election, said Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University. "It doesn't appear the attacks on Allen as a right-winger have had much effect," he said.
Thomas R. Morris, president of Emory & Henry College, said Terry may have waited too late to attack, allowing Allen to build "a Teflon coating. People see him as a non-threatening, easy-going personality that resists the extremist label."
The poll shows Allen with a big lead among white voters - 57 percent to 32 percent for Terry.
It also shows Terry has lost her advantage among women, despite her bid to become the first woman elected governor. Allen holds a statistically insignificant lead, 43 percent to 42 percent, among women and a 53 percent to 40 percent advantage among men.
The bright spot for Terry, analysts said, is that the percentage of women remaining undecided is large - 14 percent, compared with 6 percent among men. Also, Terry enjoys 82 percent support among black voters to 6 percent for Allen, with 12 percent undecided.
Democrats expect undecided voters in both those categories - women and blacks - to break in Terry's favor.
The wide swings in polls - Terry was up by 29 percent in a May survey - show "a low-enthusiasm election," Holsworth said.
He and Morris said the Mason-Dixon poll demonstrates that Allen has momentum in the final 14 days of the campaign, but both expect a much closer finish.
"It's less important how large the lead is, because whatever it is, it is likely to tighten up between now and the election," Morris said.
The poll shows Allen leading Terry in almost every region of the state, including a three-point edge, 45-42, in Northern Virginia. Democrats say they must carry that vote-rich region to win. Terry retains leads in the other two traditional Democratic strongholds - Hampton Roads and Southwest Virginia.
"Clearly, the momentum has shifted to the Allen campaign," Holsworth said. "That's going to be tough for Terry to turn around now."
The Mason-Dixon survey was conducted Thursday through Saturday among 831 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. It is intended as a snapshot of the campaign if the election were held today, not as a forecast of the final result.
Keywords:
POLITICS
Memo: shorter version ran in the Metro edition.