Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, October 25, 1993 TAG: 9310250058
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MARGARET EDDS STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: NORFOLK LENGTH: Long
At a comparable point in 1989, Douglas Wilder - then on his way to becoming the nation's first elected black governor - was scurrying from church to church, hitting as many as 11 congregations a weekend.
Sunday, with Wilder at her side part of the way, Terry reverted to the traditional Democratic tactic, watching a baptism, toe-tapping to hymns and being greeted with "hallelujahs" as she took in five church services and a breakfast gathering in a six-hour marathon.
"We can't afford to turn the clock back on what we've done here in this state," warned Wilder. The governor countered speculation that he is unenthused about Terry by introducing her at the St. John's A.M.E. and Mount Gilead Baptist churches.
Later, he told reporters he'd do "everything I can and anything I can" until the election.
The question is whether Terry's 11th-hour sprint and Wilder's late help will turn out a black vote that may be her last hope for winning Nov. 2.
Trailing by 13 percentage points in a Washington Post poll published Sunday, Terry shows no sign of reversing a trend in which her party has lost a majority of the white vote in every gubernatorial election since 1965. Democrats have won the last three elections for governor only because they carried overwhelming majorities of the black vote.
In recent weeks, some black Democrats have worried privately that Terry had too little connection to politically powerful black ministers, and that enthusiasm among black voters was slight.
For many, Wilder's appearance at two churches and his promise to be on the hustings regularly this week was a badly needed signal that Terry has the blessing of black leaders. Also accompanying Terry were Rep. Robert Scott, D-Newport News, and other black officeholders.
"Nobody in this state can electrify the African-American community as well as Doug can," said Del. William Robinson, D-Norfolk, who welcomed the visit.
And Del. Kenneth Melvin, D-Portsmouth, who joined Terry before a crowd of about 50 people at Turner's Country Kitchen, added: "Things are looking up in the black community . . . The ministers are coming on board, and the governor's here. That sends a terrific message."
Campaigning Sunday, Terry focused on differences with Republican George Allen over public aid to private schools, gun control and abortion. And she sought to draw a connection to black voters by citing her experience as a woman with rural roots. "All of us have our mountains to climb," she said.
Terry opposes use of public money to assist parents who send their children to private schools, supports a five-day waiting period for handgun purchases and would place no additional restrictions on abortion.
Allen would experiment with the use of publicly financed private-school vouchers, favors limiting parole and opposes restricting guns in fighting crime and supports notification of parents whose unwed teen-age daughters seek abortion.
In recent interviews, however, several of Terry's black supporters said their best argument in wooing converts comes from Allen's record.
Black legislators, who have been campaigning for Terry statewide, say they are talking about a 1987 trip by Allen to South Africa as a guest of a government-funded group, his display until recently of a Confederate flag in his home and his opposition to a state holiday honoring slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King as reasons to vote for Terry.
Some also note that Allen has only one paid black staff member on a staff of about 20; Terry has nine on a staff of about 28.
"When I talk about these things, the audiences I have shared them with are dumbstruck," said Del. Jerrauld Jones, D-Norfolk.
Allen says he insisted on meeting with both black and white leaders during the South African trip; that the Confederate flag was part of a sizable collection, which also includes a Zulu flag; and that he felt a King holiday was a mistake when many noted Virginians have never been so honored.
Nor has the Allen campaign quietly conceded black votes to the Democrats. For instance, campaign researchers have unearthed a 1983 resolution co-sponsored by Terry honoring Confederate Major Gen. James Ewell Brown "Jeb" Stuart "for his many contributions to this Commonwealth."
The county seat of Patrick County, Terry's home, is named for Stuart.
Allen also has publicized an urban policy that supports plans such as the Weed & Seed program and urban enterprise zones. Weed & Seed puts money into at-risk neighborhoods for community policing and coordination of social programs.
Also benefiting Allen is an incident when Terry, as attorney general, fired a black employee who had been appointed to the Richmond School Board. Terry said James Laws, a claims representative, violated office policy against outside employment by taking the school post.
Terry argued that such appointments could produce conflicts of interest in her office.
About 16 of the 120-person African Americans for George Allen committee have direct ties to Laws.
Despite Allen's efforts, pollsters and political scientists generally agree that he is unlikely to get much of the black vote. In 1985, GOP gubernatorial nominee Wyatt Durrette pushed hard for black votes with limited results.
The percentage of the black vote won by Democrat Gerald Baliles dropped 2.3 points from the previous governor's race, according to an estimate by Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. Even so, Baliles won 94.1 percent of the black vote, according to Sabato.
In 1989, Wilder won 96 percent of the black vote; in 1981, former Gov. Charles Robb won a modern high of 96.4 percent, Sabato estimates.
The greater question, many say, is how many black voters will turn out. Terry needs not only overwhelming support among those who vote, but an enthusiastic turnout. And that, many observers say, is more problematic for her.
In 1989, blacks turned out in record numbers for Wilder, accounting for 17 percent of the total vote. Four years earlier, Sabato estimates that blacks accounted for 14 percent of the vote; he puts the 1981 figure at 15 percent.
Recent polls, all of which have showed Terry trailing, have put black participation at anywhere from 11 to 15 percent of the total vote. The higher the percentage, the better Terry fares. The same almost certainly will be true on Election Day, making get-out-the-vote efforts crucial.
In recent days, Democrats have been gearing up an Election Day plan that includes the traditional, but elaborate, system of telephone callers and drivers for getting Democrats - particularly in black precincts - to the polls.
"She's going to get 90 percent of the black vote," said pollster Brad Coker. "The question is 90 percent of what."
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB