Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SATURDAY, October 30, 1993                   TAG: 9310300223
SECTION: VIRGINIA                    PAGE: C4   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: DALE EISMAN STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND                                LENGTH: Medium

ALLEN LEAD HOLDS STEADY; TERRY SAYS GAP CLOSING

The survey by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. shows Republican nominee Allen with a 7-point lead, 49-42, over Democrat Mary Sue Terry. He led by the same margin in a Mason-Dixon survey taken 10 days earlier.

Conducted Monday through Wednesday, the survey of 824 voters across the state suggests that Allen would have to lose virtually all of the undecided voters to Terry for her to catch and pass him.

The survey has a statistical margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

For lieutenant governor, the poll shows incumbent Don Beyer, the Democrat, pulling away to an 18-point lead, 54-36, over Republican Mike Farris. The contest for attorney general remains close, however; Republican Jim Gilmore leads Democrat Bill Dolan by 5 points, 43-38.

In the governor's race, the results indicate that a barrage of Terry television commercials attacking Allen's connections to the religious right has not damaged the Republican's standing with voters.

In the new survey, 50 percent of the voters say they have a favorable view of Allen, and 25 percent view him negatively. His favorable rating is 6 points higher than in mid-October, and his unfavorable rating is 1 point higher, a statistically insignificant change.

Terry, meanwhile, continues to have equal favorable/unfavorable ratings, as an identical 39 percent of the voters use one of those labels to describe her.

"It shows her negative campaign is backfiring," said Ken Stroupe, an Allen campaign spokesman. "It is not working for her. It shows that the more Mary Sue talks, the less voters like her."

The Republican nominee agreed.

"The numbers are good," said Allen. "They're exactly where they were before."

Though still behind, Terry also seemed upbeat about the survey. "He's hit a ceiling," she said of Allen. ". . . Clearly, his campaign hasn't gone anywhere in the last two weeks. The question is: What has caused his momentum to stop?"

Tom King, Terry's campaign consultant, noted that a Washington Post survey published Sunday gave Allen a 13-point advantage. "It's getting a lot closer, that's what we're seeing," he said.

"That's ridiculous," retorted Stroupe. "You can't compare different polls, because everybody has different polling methods."

Pollsters agree that because of variations in methods of questioning and phrasing of questions, comparing the results of surveys done by different pollsters can be misleading.

While Republicans said the Mason-Dixon figures are consistent with campaign polls showing Allen's lead is solid, Democrats found some reason for optimism in the relatively high number of women voters - 10 percent - that the survey indicates are still undecided. Terry is seeking to become Virginia's first woman governor and is counting on a strong vote from women.

The Mason-Dixon poll questioned equal numbers of men and women, although most pollsters believe slightly more women than men actually go to the polls. The survey shows Allen leading Terry, 57-37, among men, but trailing, 47-41, among women.

Coker cautioned that whatever boost Terry may get from undecided women breaking her way and a high turnout among women could be offset by a low black turnout. The poll assumes that blacks, who generally vote solidly Democratic, will cast about 16 percent of the total vote. Coker said that is the average black turnout in a governor's race.

Terry has been struggling to build enthusiasm for her campaign among black voters, however, and Coker warned that Allen's overall margin would increase if black turnout is low.

Keywords:
POLITICS