Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, November 3, 1993 TAG: 9311030347
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MARGARET EDDS STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
With 100 percent of the votes counted, Allen - who six months ago was trailing by 29 percentage points in polls - defeated Mary Sue Terry, a former two-term attorney general, decisively in every region and among almost every voting group.
Allen had 58 percent of the vote - 1,037,200 - to Terry's 41 percent - 730,219. Independent candidate Nancy Spannaus received 14,225 votes, or 1 percent.
Terry's showing is the worst for a Democratic candidate in modern Virginia history, falling below the 43 percent won in 1977 by Henry Howell, a liberal populist and former lieutenant governor.
Terry won only six of Virginia's 95 counties - her home, rural Patrick County, went for Allen - and nine of the state's 41 cities. Howell carried 32 counties and 12 cities in 1977.
The GOP tide that carried Allen lapped into the House of Delegates as well, carrying the GOP to a record 47 seats in the 100-member chamber.
That was a pickup of six seats for the Republicans, three of those coming from seats in Southwest Virginia.
Anti-incumbent sentiment, disgruntlement with Democratic officeholders, concern about crime, and a Terry campaign criticized by many apparently allowed Allen to overcome deficits in fund raising and a barrage of negative television ads.
A 41-year-old Charlottesville lawyer, Allen campaigned with a nonthreatening, Reaganesque warmth that apparently canceled out potential damage from links to the National Rifle Association and the religious right.
Analysts said Terry was battling the unpopularity of a Democratic president and the state's two top Democratic officeholders, but that she also contributed heavily to her own defeat.
Asked the reason for the trouncing, University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said it could be summed up in four names: President Bill Clinton, Gov. Douglas Wilder, U.S. Sen. Charles Robb and Terry.
"The first three created a climate that made it very difficult for any Democrat to win this year, and the fourth made it impossible," he said.
"Pick your adjective: debacle, catastrophe, blowout. It was a textbook example of how not to run a campaign in Virginia," Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University, said.
An exit poll by Mason-Dixon Opinion Research Inc. of Columbia, Md., showed Allen winning 62 percent of the male vote and 52 percent of the female vote, according to the survey.
The exit poll showed Allen carrying 17 percent of the black vote, the most significant minority backing for a Republican gubernatorial candidate since Linwood Holton captured the statehouse in 1969. Only 34 percent of whites voted for Terry, fewer than supported Wilder when he became the nation's first elected black governor four years ago.
Geographically, Terry was leading only in Northern Virginia, and there only slightly, according to the exit poll.
As the summer began, Allen appeared to bring little to the race besides a famous father who once coached the Washington Redskins, a modest record as a state legislator and one-term congressman, and an unquenchable spirit.
The exit poll suggested he connected with voters as a strong leader who exhibited new ideas and was considered more honest and trustworthy than his opponent.
Thirty-one percent scored Allen high on trust, compared with 16 percent who cited that as a reason for voting for Terry.
Despite heavy negative advertising linking Allen to Virginia Beach religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, the Republican appeared to have been largely undamaged by the connection.
Robertson called the GOP victory "a repudiation of what happened in Washington last year."
The election proves that "a principled conservative who has the support of the religious right can do well in Virginia," VCU's Holsworth said.
Terry, who had led the pack in Democratic sweeps of statewide offices in 1985 and 1989, approached the race this spring as a 29-percentage point favorite in polls. By early July, her fund-raising advantage over Allen was 10-to-1.
But Terry, who built a career on centrist positions and evasion of risky causes, appeared to fall victim to a cautious nature and a faith in media campaigns and consultants.
Critics said she failed to seize the offensive in the early summer, when a heavy dose of negative advertising, combined with a positive portrayal of herself, might have dried up Allen's fund-raising sources.
Keywords:
ELECTION
by CNB