
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: FRIDAY, November 5, 1993                   TAG: 9311050132
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Boston Globe
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

HEALTH ESTIMATE CHANGED

The Clinton administration on Thursday sought to patch a hole it poked in its own argument for the president's health-care plan by announcing that 30 percent of currently insured Americans would pay more under the proposal, rather than the 40 percent it cited last week.

White House budget director Leon Panetta told the Senate Finance Committee that 70 percent of insured Americans would pay the same or less for health insurance coverage under the plan, with savings averaging $61 a month.

For those who would pay more, mostly young people and workers now without coverage, the extra cost would average $24 a month, he said.

"If we fail to pass the plan, 100 percent of Americans can be expected to pay higher insurance premiums because that is where health-care costs are going," Panetta said.

In offering the new assessment, Panetta sought to undo the political damage of testimony last week by Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala that 40 percent or more of Americans, more than 100 million people, could pay more for insurance under the Clinton plan. Critics pounced on Shalala's figures as evidence that the White House proposal is politically unworkable. Supporters bemoaned the administration's seeming inability to put its best foot forward and keep it there.

"This was a tactical blunder which must be corrected," said Ron Pollack, executive director of Families USA, a Washington advocacy group that strongly backs the Clinton plan.

Panetta on Thursday acknowledged that key estimates in the White House proposal are more in the nature of educated guesses than precise forecasts and would require future presidents and Congresses to make uncharacteristically tough decisions if health-care costs climb beyond expectations.

At one point, he said the administration estimates that part of the proposal's biggest costs - government subsidies for poor people, low-wage firms and early retirees and a multibillion-dollar financial cushion for the system - will total $349 billion over five years. But, he added, "I don't want to kid anybody with regard to these estimates. This is not something where we had a fine science to turn to."

by CNB