Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, November 18, 1993 TAG: 9311180087
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Dallas Morning News
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
By mid-afternoon, hours before the House vote, already Perot was moving the focus away from his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement and shifting attention toward next year's congressional elections.
"In the event that it goes down, we will mount a major membership campaign the next day," Perot said in a Cable News Network interview. "Then, we will be focused on 1994 in every congressional district."
Some analysts suggested that Perot opponents shouldn't crow over the NAFTA fight as a sign of limited political clout. They said Perot, the former independent presidential candidate, still wields considerable influence over disaffected voters, as well as nervous incumbents.
"Nobody feels safe. Nobody feels like he's from a safe district," said Norman Ornstein, an analyst with the American Enterprise Institute, a nonpartisan Washington think tank. "All it takes is five to 10 United We Stand people standing up in a congressional district saying, `We're watching you' to have an impact."
Officials with United We Stand America, the advocacy organization formed during Perot's presidential campaign, have spent the past year organizing chapters in every state. But they have refused to discuss the size of its membership.
On Wednesday, Perot said he didn't see the group emerging as a third political party, but he added, "I am probably the principal force keeping that from happening now."
A number of national public opinion polls have showed Perot's popularity slipping since last November. But some experts say he still can influence some elections.
Frank Luntz, a Washington pollster who conducted some campaign surveys for Perot last year, recently completed a computer analysis of the effect of an active, Perot-led anti-incumbent campaign in 1994. By his reckoning, such a drive could oust 68 members of Congress - 41 Democrats and 27 Republicans.
He said his analysis was based on a computer simulation of all 1994 congressional races, based on each district's past electoral performance.
Melissa Line, a political scientist at Goucher College, agreed that defeat on NAFTA does not mean Perot has lost all his clout.
"I feel confident that if United We Stand does not become a third party in name, it will become one in fact," said Line, director of the Hughes Field Politics Center at the college's Baltimore campus.
Regardless of Perot's performance in last week's debate with Vice President Al Gore, Line said, his stature was elevated the moment the White House challenged him to the face-off.
"He may be momentarily harmed if the NAFTA vote is for the president," she said, "but it's going to be minimal because over the long haul he's going to be seen as a worthy advocate."
Congressional leaders of both parties credited Perot with having a major, if not singular, effect on the NAFTA fight.
"He made it a harder fight," said House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich, R-Ga. "I think he strengthened the spirit of some of the members.
"I think he was not as important as the unions - the unions are the real story," Gingrich said. "But I think he deserves some legitimate respect for his role in this."
House Speaker Thomas Foley agreed. "I'm sure he influenced some votes," he said.
Foley said undecided Democrats probably were swayed more by labor opposition to the trade accord, while Republicans were more vulnerable to Perot.
by CNB