Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, November 18, 1993 TAG: 9311180119
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: STATE
SOURCE: Knight-Ridder Newspapers
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
A firm majority of 227 lawmakers had committed NAFTA represents inevitable change, economist says. B10 For update, call InfoLine, enter 2022. publicly to back NAFTA by early afternoon, according to an Associated Press survey; 218 votes were needed for victory. Opponents numbered fewer than 200 and their ranks eroded through the day as momentum kept building behind NAFTA.
The facts about NAFTA all but got lost amid the fury of the final debate. "Fear," in fact, appeared to be the word most frequently invoked.
Opponents said NAFTA made Americans fear for their jobs. Supporters said opponents simply were fearful of the future.
Rep. Gerald Solomon, R-N.Y., called the November 1994 election "judgment day" for lawmakers who support NAFTA because the voters "are going to throw your butts out of here!"
Rep. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., got so mad at Solomon that he hollered at him: "You, sir, have fired a shotgun of fear at me, and I resent it."
One of the most eloquent speeches came from Democrat John Lewis of Georgia, who thundered, "I do want free trade, but not at the expense of our workers. . . . If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything." Lewis said the United States would lose its soul if NAFTA passed.
But Lewis' pro-NAFTA colleague from Georgia, Republican Whip Newt Gingrich, insisted that "this is a vote for history."
Victory for NAFTA would set the stage for implementation of the controversial trade pact with Canada and Mexico on Jan. 1. The Senate is expected to approve the deal, possibly as early as Monday.
Victory would mean rising exports of U.S.-made products and more jobs and prosperity in all three countries, NAFTA's champions insist, and most independent analysts agree.
Victory also would send a powerful message to the world that the United States still welcomes open trade in open markets - and that Clinton fights hard and well for his convictions.
Clinton planned to take that message with him today to Seattle, where he is to huddle in trade talks with leaders from 15 Asian nations. He also will press the point in seeking to wind up global trade talks in Geneva by Dec. 15 under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.
At a time of global anxiety amid widespread economic weakness and post-Cold-War confusion, foreign policy experts say that may be NAFTA's greatest importance - the firm, clear signals it sends about the United States' intentions as the world's pre-eminent leader.
However, victory for NAFTA would not produce results immediately visible to U.S. consumers. They need not expect to see a flood of Mexican products anytime soon, primarily because Mexico's economy is only 5 percent as large as the U.S. economy. In addition, the U.S. market essentially is wide open to Mexican products already; NAFTA's main impact would be to eliminate Mexican barriers to outside trade and investment.
The vote would free Mexico from a ringside seat at a U.S. debate it found exasperating, and at times, even humiliating.
Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari needed a NAFTA victory even more than Clinton. The trade pact, which Salinas first proposed to President Bush, is the centerpiece of a sweeping economic reform program that has profoundly affected Mexican life.
Salinas' reforms have streamlined the public sector, privatized hundreds of industries and curbed inflation.
Clinton spent the day working the phone, lobbying wavering House members for last-minute votes. He planned to watch the balloting on TV in his West Wing study, according to White House spokeswoman Dee Dee Myers.
His top aides plugged away for NAFTA all day, too. Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen made a brief appearance in the White House press room to comment on his lobbying labors hours before celebrating his 50th wedding anniversary at a private dinner with his wife and the Clintons.
"I must say, I've courted some of these congressmen longer than I courted my wife to get them to agree to NAFTA," Bentsen cracked.
The Mexican reaction to the House vote was more somber.
"More than anything, we feel a sigh of relief," one senior Mexican diplomat said Wednesday. "People are not jumping for joy. Many of the things being said [about Mexico] are very offensive. "
Salinas' political fate is so identified with NAFTA that his government virtually was held hostage to the U.S. debate. Mexico's stock market rose and fell with headcounts of U.S. lawmakers. And Salinas was forced to accede to a string of last-minute deals to protect U.S. sugar and citrus industries.
Uncomfortably for Mexicans, the U.S. debate often strayed from trade to discuss Mexico's strengths and weaknesses. NAFTA advocates argued that Mexico is a voracious consumer of U.S. goods, sustaining thousands of U.S. jobs. But opponents complained that Mexico suppresses workers' wages, pollutes the environment and is not a full democracy.
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