Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, November 21, 1993 TAG: 9311210045
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: D-10 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JACK BOGACZYK STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
As the season begins, everyone gets the same treatment - one paragraph. Here's the national preview compiled via conference calls in a much quieter fashion than you'll get from Dick Vitale:
Michigan reached the NCAA championship game twice with Chris Webber in the lineup, but the Fab Five minus one still should be good enough to win the 11-team Big Ten if Jalen Rose improves his decision-making at point guard. This should be a seven-bid league at NCAA time, including Wisconsin, which hasn't been in the tournament since 1947. It will be a longer year for other reasons at Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Michigan State.
The ACC has had eight teams in the past six Final Fours and won three consecutive titles. Defending champion North Carolina should duplicate neighboring Duke's NCAA title repeat of 1991 and '92 this season. Virginia, Georgia Tech, Florida State and maybe Clemson will follow the Heels and Blue Devils into the NCAA field.
In the Big Eight, Oklahoma State will be big - see 7-foot center Bryant Reeves - and patient. That probably adds up to the Cowboys' first outright conference title in 29 years. Kansas, which lost four starters from a Final Four team, Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa State should be NCAA-bound, too.
Two divisions, 12 teams, and in the Southeastern Conference, maybe two Final Four teams. Kentucky, even without NBA rookie Jamal Mashburn, and Arkansas should win their respective divisions. Vanderbilt and LSU should be strong challengers. Georgia has great talent but needs leadership.
The Atlantic 10 spent last season wiping off that Big East beast's footprints, and according to the Ratings Percentage Index computer was ranked fourth among the conferences behind the ACC, Big Ten and Big Eight. The A-10 will be tough again this season, led by Temple, George Washington and Massachusetts. West Virginia could get an NCAA bid, too.
Syracuse is back from probation, but the 6-foot-10 duo of coach John Thompson and center Othella Harrington will return Georgetown to the top of the Big East. The Hoyas won 20 games last season, but finished eighth in the league. That's what happens when you play Hawaii-Loa. Connecticut, Boston College and St. John's should feel March madness, too.
Cal has the best player - but it may not be preseason All-America guard Jason Kidd - and UCLA the best team. That's the Pacific 10 preview. Where's Arizona, the perennial NCAA crash site? No better than third. Cal's top scorer is likely to be forward Lamond Murray, but the Bruins have more experience and depth.
The Great Midwest still doesn't have an automatic bid to the NCAA, but it doesn't need one. Although Anfernee Hardaway bolted early for NBA bucks, Memphis State should return to the field of 64, with league mates Cincinnati and Marquette, the preseason favorite as it seeks to change its Warriors nickname.
Shawn Bradley would have made Brigham Young a Sweet 16 club. Instead, the 7-foot-6 center is making $44 million on an eight-year contract with the NBA's Philadelphia 76ers after his return from a Mormon mission. The Cougars' mission will be to win the Western Athletic Conference title without him. Watch Utah and Colorado State, too.
The Metro is improved top to bottom with the exception of Tulane. However, the Green Wave still will finish in the top three with Final Four candidate Louisville and Virginia Commonwealth. UNC Charlotte could win 20, too. In any other year, Virginia Tech's improvement would mean upward mobility.
With Nevada-Las Vegas on NCAA probation - a shocking development - New Mexico State again will loom largest in the Big West. Coach Neil McCarthy has nine transfer arrivals, including eight from junior colleges, to continue success in a program that should earn its fifth consecutive NCAA berth.
Texas should rebound from an injury-filled season to be the best in the Southwest Conference, thanks to four returning starters and transfers from Louisville (Tremaine Wingfield) and Michigan (Rich McIver). There's not much more to write about, except new SWC Commissioner Steve Hatchell.
While longtime assistant Bill Dooley is trying to continue the success of retired Richmond coach Dick Tarrant, Old Dominion will win the Colonial Athletic Association. The Monarchs will be led by sophomore Odell Hodge, the Laurel Park High School graduate who should be the CAA's best player. James Madison has transfers, as usual, and everyone will be wondering again whether coach Lefty Driesell can win the CAA Tournament. Well, this time, he won't be favored.
Western Kentucky was the Sun Belt Conference's first NCAA regional semifinalist since 1985, and the Hilltoppers and New Orleans each won 26 games. The Privateers and Western Kentucky should finish 1-2 again, primarily because of the Hilltoppers' youth. Southwestern Louisiana has the backcourt to improve on a 17-13 finish that included some confounding losses by coach Marty Fletcher's program.
Next to the Atlantic 10, the Missouri Valley was the nation's most improved conference last season. Now, the league appears headed for divisional play after adding Evansville (from the Midwestern Collegiate Conference) as an 11th member for 1994-95. Tulsa appears strongest in a balanced league, although 1993 champion Southern Illinois and Illinois State are threats, too.
Santa Clara upset Arizona in the NCAA Tournament in March after surprising to win the West Coast Conference title over Pepperdine. Those two clubs will be at the top of the WCC chase again. Pepperdine, 23-8 last season, has four returning starters, including forward Dana Jones, the league's best performer. And whatever happened to Loyola Marymount? The Lions were 7-20 last season and probably won't get to .500 this time.
Miami of Ohio lost coach Joby Wright to Wyoming, but three starters return to the club that has been the Mid-American Conference champion the past two seasons. However, Western Michigan is the pick in the MAC. If the Broncos deliver, it will be their first NCAA visit since 1976, when they opened with an overtime victory over Virginia Tech in Don DeVoe's last game as the Hokies' coach. Yes, it's been that long.
In the Ivy League, it doesn't take a high SAT score to know that Pennsylvania should repeat as league champion and perhaps repeat its 14-0 regular-season league record. Princeton has four starters back from a rebuilding team, and any club with Pete Carril as coach is dangerous, but the Quakers, led by a very good backcourt of Matt Maloney and Jerome Allen, might have a shot at the Ivy's first NCAA victory in a decade.
The Big Sky Conference has some wonderful nicknames - Grizzlies, Lumberjacks and Vandals among them. This season, it also may have a player with an NBA future in Idaho forward Orlando Lightfoot. That's why the Vandals are picked to win the league, with Montana's Grizzlies chasing them.
The Midwestern Collegiate Conference doesn't have an automatic bid this season and might not have a league next season. Xavier is the class of the league, and coach Pete Gillen's club should make its eighth NCAA visit in nine years. Dayton has bolted for the Great Midwest, and Evansville will leave after this season for the Missouri Valley.
Frankie Allen's Tennessee State club shocked the Ohio Valley Conference last season. The Tigers can do so again this season, but only if they don't win the title and a second consecutive NCAA trip for the former Virginia Tech coach. Allen has four starters returning, led by the league's best player - 6-11 center Carlos Rogers, the leading scorer on the gold-medal winning U.S. team at the World University Games.
If you inverted the Southern Conference standings at season's end, you'd likely to find VMI on top. That's the bad news. The champion again will come from the Volunteer State, with 1993 champion Tennessee-Chattanooga - where coach Mack McCarthy has taken at least a share of the regular-season crown the past four winters - appearing to have an edge over East Tennessee State.
The Metro Atlantic race will be fun for everyone but its coaches. Defending champion Manhattan has enough talent to return to the NCAA Tournament. Canisius could topple the Jaspers, which might be appropriate. Before last March, Manhattan's last NCAA bid came in 1958. The Golden Griffins haven't made the NCAA field since 1957.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee was 23-4 last season as an independent and didn't even get an NIT bid. So, the Panthers have joined the Mid-Continent Conference, where they can't play in the conference tournament until 1996. A league that has been represented in the NCAA by Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wright State in recent years should send Illinois-Chicago to the big dance in March.
Why shouldn't the Southwestern Athletic Conference feel good about itself? Southern shocked Georgia Tech in last season's NCAA Tournament, and SWAC player of the year Lindsey Hunter, from Jackson State, is a future NBA star with Detroit. This season, the favorite is Alabama State, although don't count out Southern, which welcomes back star center Jervaughn Scales, who averaged 19 points and 13 rebounds last season. That board figure ranked second nationally.
Delaware isn't likely to make its third consecutive NCAA date from the North Atlantic Conference. Northeastern and Drexel shared the regular-season title a year ago. Each has four starters back, but Drexel has the league's best player in guard Brian Holden.
Don't expect to see the Virginia entries - Radford and Liberty - at the north end of the Big South standings. The favorite is Coastal Carolina, with four returning starters, including star guard KeKe Hicks. Maryland-Baltimore County and Towson State may challenge.
In the 10-team Trans America, which has regained its automatic NCAA bid, there are two clubs to watch. One is Florida International, where coach Bob Weltlich is meshing a couple of transfers with several returning regulars from a 20-10 team. The other is the College of Charleston, which could win the TAAC title in its first season as a full member. However, the rookie Cougars are ineligible for that automatic NCAA berth.
Among the so-called little leagues, Fordham has four players 6-9 or taller and LSU transfer David Mascia, a much-needed guard. That should be plenty to win the Patriot League, although Colgate has four starters back from an 18-victory team. Another interesting club could be Navy, where coach Don DeVoe - yes, that Don DeVoe - has all five starters returning.
The Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference was smart to move its tournament to Baltimore. That's the home of favorite Coppin State, which swept undefeated through the MEAC last season and could do it again - without a senior. The biggest change in the league is at North Carolina A & T, where Jeff Capel - father of the Duke freshman guard of the same name - takes over for retired Don Corbett, who won seven titles in 14 years.
Wagner or Fairleigh Dickinson will win the Northeast Conference, then be a No. 16 regional seed in the NCAA first round. Wagner has the league's best player in guard Bobby Hopson, but FDU has several injured starters back, plus several transfers.
McNeese State may have college basketball's best "name" player in forward Fabulous Flournoy, but Northeast Louisiana should make its fifth consecutive NCAA appearance despite losing more than three-fourths of its scoring. That says something about the Southland Conference and about the transfer class the Indians have attracted, with defectors from DePaul and LSU.
The East Coast Conference is a stretch. The league has no automatic bid, with six teams located in New York, Connecticut, Illinois and Alabama. The only club to watch is Troy State, in its first year in Division I after going 27-5 as the NCAA Division II Tournament runner-up. Troy State runs the same system used by Paul Westhead, the former Loyola Marymount coach starting his first season at George Mason. Troy State opens in Fairfax. Expect six digits in the final score.
Can you list the six independents left in Division I? Notre Dame was easy. The rest: Missouri-Kansas City, Cal State-Northridge, Sacramento State, Oral Roberts and Southern Utah. Now, you can forget all six, because none will be in the NCAA Tournament.
by CNB