Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, December 9, 1993 TAG: 9312140264
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A23 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Ray L. Garland
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
The 200-member Democratic State Central Committee will decide Dec. 11 whether to nominate its senatorial candidate by primary or convention. Until recent days, it had been assumed the odds favored a convention because Robb wanted it. Wilder always said he wanted a primary, and implied he would run as an independent if he didn't get it.
It's hard for Robb to get it right. When Wilder raised the issue of a primary last spring, the senator had a wonderful opportunity to take up the challenge and say, "Great idea, any way you want it is fine with me." By clinging to the idea of a convention, he looked weak. Then came the customary Robbian amendments. Two weeks ago it was, "I will take no position, one way or the other." Now, "If I were voting, I would vote for a primary. ... It's a more democratic process."
Party regulars hate to diminish their influence by opening the doors to outsiders, but it would be unthinkable for the State Central Committee to defy the expressed wishes of both the incumbent senator and the incumbent governor. Doing so would also run the grave risk of inviting one or more independent candidates to split the Democratic vote in the general election.
Meanwhile, city and county Democratic chairmen hardly know which way to turn. A recent newspaper survey showed more than half favoring neither Robb nor Wilder. But none of the party's second-tier stars, such as Rep. Rick Boucher or former Gov. Gerald Baliles, seems tempted to enter what looks to be a charnel house. Two relative unknowns with little to lose, Sylvia Clute and Dan Alcorn, are apparently in the race regardless.
Beat down as he has been, one can sympathize with Robb's desire to seek rebirth at the polls. But Democrats have been far too kind to the senator. Had what happened to him happened to any other political figure - Democrat or Republican - that unfortunate person would have long since been hounded from the scene.
It isn't too late for senior party leaders not affiliated with Wilder to join in stating publicly what so many think privately: to wit, "The emperor has no clothes." Robb's exit would almost certainly bring a heavy-metal Democrat into the race, behind whom the party's anti-Wilder wing could unite.
But Robb's old trappings of inherited wealth and glamour, when joined to that neat trick of talking like a conservative while voting like a liberal, have kept him on his feet. The most recent published polling data, now two months old, gave Robb a substantial lead over Oliver North, the likely Republican challenger, while North was narrowly favored over Wilder.
For what it's worth, the poll offered solid evidence backing the choice of a primary as the best way to keep the race one-on-one. In a three-way contest with Robb and Wilder, the poll suggests, North stands his best chance of victory.
Of course, a primary is truly a shot in the dark.
Democrats haven't held one since 1977. But a Robb-Wilder-Whoever contest will bring voters to the polls - perhaps 600,000 strong. There are a lot of good uses for a list that large of people willing to proclaim a party choice, as Republicans discovered when they astonished themselves by inviting the rank and file to choose their candidates by primary in 1989. But the last two state primaries also turned up five losers out of six!
There will be mutterings that Republican loyalists will flock to the primary to vote for the Democrat they most want to run against - presumably Wilder. I've heard tales of this, even had Republicans tell me they voted for Henry Howell in that '77 primary for just that reason. But long experience also tells me it's awfully hard to persuade any sizable number of Virginians to enter the polling booth with an insincere purpose in mind.
It's fairly easy to predict how Robb and Wilder will position themselves going into a primary. At this point, about all that's left for the senator is trying to rally white liberals as an unapologetic Clintonite. His go-the-limit support for the president's program, even in its darkest days, entitles him to that. If Clinton's political fortunes rise with the economy, as now seems likely, there could be a payoff for Robb.
With his anti-NAFTA stance and other small gestures of solidarity with organized labor, Wilder will present himself as the friend of the average Joe and Jane. As Howell did in '77, he should devote most of his labors to mobilizing the party's most dependable voters. With blacks and labor, you know where the vote is, and there are experienced leaders already in place to help you get it out.
The chink in Wilder's armor is this: The fiscal conservatism that has made him such a hero to the editors of The Wall Street Journal and The Richmond Times-Dispatch won't cut much ice with likely primary voters, especially teachers and other government employees. And those who have most approved the conservative themes of his governorship will hardly trust his senatorial intentions sufficiently to rally to his cause.
But once the primary is agreed upon, the thing that may surprise people is the extent to which both Robb and Wilder avoid personal attacks. Sullied as they are in many minds, they have a vested interest in taking the high road, at least in public. We might also note that neither man is yet locked into this race. There could be another twist in the plot.
\ Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times & World-News columnist.
by CNB