
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: TUESDAY, December 14, 1993                   TAG: 9312140031
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A6   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Short

AIDS SURVEY ESTIMATES 555,000 CARRIERS IN U.S.

The first nationwide survey of AIDS infections conservatively estimates that about 550,000 Americans carry the virus, which is considerably fewer than previous government estimates.

The new figures, released Monday, represent the first attempt to estimate the scope of AIDS infection in the United States by directly testing ordinary Americans. They were based on a randomly chosen sample of 7,992 households and compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

The most widely accepted estimate of AIDS infections has been compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It projects that about 1 million Americans are infected, a number that has remained virtually unchanged since the mid-1980s.

In fact, the researchers who conducted the latest survey said theirs is a conservative estimate, because it covered only people who live at home, not prisoners, the homeless or hospitalized patients. In addition, young men in the study were slightly less likely than other participants to allow their blood to be drawn for AIDS testing, and this too could have led to an underestimate of the infections.

Dr. Geraldine McQuillan, an epidemiologist with the center, said the CDC figures may have overestimated the extent of the epidemic in the past but they might not be far off now because of the size of the new survey's margin of error. The true number, based on the new survey, could range anywhere from 300,000 to 1.02 million, she said.

by CNB