Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, March 7, 1994 TAG: 9403070143
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
As the first primaries begin this week, neither political party is willing to make firm predictions, but both believe Republicans will erode the Democrats' 257-176 House majority.
Historical averages suggest a GOP gain of 14 House seats this November. GOP increases in that range or larger would alter the ideology of the House even if Republicans fell well short of a majority.
So Republicans dream of copying the Democrats' success in 1982, when a recession-year gain of 26 seats cut the GOP to 166 seats in the House and splintered the alliance of Republicans and conservative Democrats that launched the Reagan tax cuts and defense buildup.
"It is not a large number of seats that we would have to pick up to dramatically change the agenda of Congress," said Bill Paxon, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the GOP's House fund-raising arm.
To prove his point, Paxon noted that President Clinton's first budget cleared the House by just one vote. Plus, an alliance of House Republicans and moderate Democrats lost 219-213 when they pushed a package of spending cuts late last year.
Paxon's Democratic counterpart, Rep. Vic Fazio, says he'd be happy to keep Democratic losses to 15 seats, and talks of a scenario in which Democrats lose 30.
There is reason for Fazio's pessimism.
The majority of the retiring lawmakers are Democrats, removing the power of incumbency in districts that are more competitive because Republicans fared well when new lines were drawn after the 1990 census.
Factoring in the public's anti-incumbent sentiment "and the still-angry-at-Congress Perot voters out there," Fazio figures House Democrats could get a thumping. "Life is very difficult for us this year," he said.
Of the 38 House members not seeking re-election, 22 are Democrats. Veteran Reps. William Natcher, 84, of Kentucky, and Jamie Whitten, 83, of Mississippi, are widely expected to join Democrats on the retirement list soon. Fazio predicts 50 or more retirements overall by the time filing deadlines pass.
Also, there is mounting evidence that the wall that has protected individual incumbents from voters' disgust with Congress as an institution is crumbling.
For years, voters have responded to polls by saying they hate Congress but like their representative, a dynamic that has benefited the Democratic majority. But when asked to look ahead to this November's elections, just 35 percent in the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll said their House member deserved re-election. Forty-seven percent said it was time for a new person.
"I predict there will be 100 new members elected this fall, which would unquestionably favor us," said Republican Paxon. Such turnover, whatever the party breakdown, would again dramatically change the seniority charts in Congress. In 1992, 110 freshman were elected.
And while its clout is unclear, Ross Perot's United We Stand America has promised to focus on congressional races this year, with an emphasis on convincing voters the problem "might be the congressman from your own neighborhood," in the words of Perot strategist Russ Verney.
While predicting some GOP gains, most independent analysts say the Democrats are aggressively trying to raise expectations for Republicans so that Democrats can cast modest GOP gains in November as a disaster.
"I think Fazio is posturing. I keep coming back to Republicans picking up 12 to 15 seats, and can even envision Democrats keeping losses to single digits," said Charles Cook, who publishes a political newsletter that closely tracks congressional races. "There are enough vulnerable incumbents on the Republican side to keep the partisan turnover modest, unless some tidal wave hits to kill the Democrats."
\ HOUSE ELECTIONS `94\ A LOOK AT SOME OF THE NUMBERS AND TRENDS OF MIDTERM HOUSE ELECTIONS:
The current House breakdown is 257 Democrats, 176 Republicans, one independent and one vacancy. Before the 1992 elections, it was 266 Democrats and 166 Republicans. And in 1990, it was 258 Democrats and 175 Republicans.
Midterm elections are almost always bad news for the party that controls the White House; not since 1934 has the president's party gained House seats in a midterm election. The average loss of House seats in a the first midterm of a new administration is 14.
The early primaries offer a glimpse at voter attitudes, particularly the depth of anti-incumbent sentiment. Nineteen incumbents lost House primaries in 1992. Texas opens the 1994 primary season Tuesday, and Democratic Reps. Craig Washington and Gene Green are vulnerable. After Texas, attention shifts to Illinois, where House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dan Rostenkowski faces a stiff primary challenge.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB