Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, March 24, 1994 TAG: 9403240043
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: B-8 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE:
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
But analysts said the decline reported Wednesday by the Commerce Department may in part be weather-related and likely is only a temporary interruption in the upward trend for U.S. manufacturing.
The department said orders to factories for durable goods fell 2.5 percent in February, the first decline since July, when the indicator of manufacturing growth dipped 2.8 percent. Orders rose 4.4 percent in January, revised upward from the 3.7 percent the government estimated a month ago.
"The numbers were weaker than I thought," said Michael Niemira of Mitsubishi Bank in New York City. "But I'm still moderately encouraged. They probably will rebound as we move forward."
"The industrial sector will continue to advance in coming months," said Bruce Steinberg of Merrill Lynch & Co. "However, the rate of increase is likely to slow to a more sustainable pace."
The Commerce Department said orders for all items expected to last at least three years totaled a seasonally adjusted $145 billion. The record, $148.8 billion, was set in January.
February's decline was due to a plunge in defense orders, down 30.6 percent, with volatile orders for aircraft and parts leading the way. Aircraft also accounts for a big part of the transportation component of the index; that sector slumped 9.2 percent.
Excluding transportation, durable-goods orders were unchanged last month, and excluding defense orders, orders dropped 1 percent.
Car orders rose less than expected in February, analysts said, and many said automotive output has peaked and will decline in the next three months. But other factory orders likely will continue on the upswing, they said.
Durable-goods orders are a key barometer of manufacturing plans for production. A decline could dampen production and job growth.
by CNB