Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: TUESDAY, March 29, 1994                   TAG: 9403300143
SECTION: EDITORIAL                    PAGE: A5   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: DONALD E. NUECHTERLEIN
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

TRADE

With Japan, the issue is Tokyo's mercantilist trade policies, which push exports but limit imports. America's huge trade deficit with Japan, instead of declining last year as expected, grew by nearly $60 billion.

With China, the problem is Beijing's blatant denial of human rights to citizens demanding freedom of speech and assembly. Secretary of State Warren Christopher told Chinese leaders that President Clinton would impose trade penalties on China's large export trade to the United States if it didn't stop imprisoning political dissenters.

Clinton's National Economic Council concluded in January that further trade negotiations with Japan were probably pointless. Tokyo had assured Clinton last summer that it would take more American exports but failed to do so.

Clinton recently reinstated a law known as Super 301, which had lain dormant for several years. It gives him the authority to impose high tariffs on countries that he determines engage in unfair trading practices.

Many economists say this action violates America's obligations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. However, Congress strongly supports the president on this matter and opinion polls show the public thinks it is time to get tough with Japan on trade.

Japan made a significant concession in mid-March: It decided to carry out an earlier agreement permitting Motorola corporation to sell cellular phones in its lucrative market.

Other concessions may be on the way if the Tokyo government and Japan's intransigent bureaucrats conclude that Clinton is serious about trade sanctions. But a trade war cannot be ruled out if the nationalists win out in Japan.

China will be more difficult to change.

After the Tiananmen Square massacre five years ago, Congress demanded that President Bush impose trade penalties on China's communist government unless it improved its human-rights record. In addition, China's trade surplus with the United States reached nearly $25 billion in 1993.

China's view is that its internal security is none of America's business. To underscore that position, Beijing arrested several Chinese dissidents on the eve of Secretary Christopher's visit to Beijing. It was China's way of saying ``Mind your own business.''

If the impasse isn't resolved by June, Chinese exports to the United States will be hit with huge tariffs. This will drastically cut U.S.-China trade and hurt American exporters as well as consumers. As the Democratic-controlled Congress insists that Clinton get tough with China on human rights, he seems to have little room to maneuver.

The United States is heading into a cold war on trade with China and possibly with Japan because five years of negotiations with both countries failed to produce policies that reduce trade deficits and improve human rights in China.

This tough U.S. policy was unthinkable five years ago, when the Soviet Union was still a threat to U.S. security interests and we needed China and Japan as friends. Today, that has changed and Washington can afford to risk their displeasure.

By summer we will know whether U.S.-China relations are in cold storage for an indefinite period, and if Japan will make additional concessions to avoid a bruising trade war. If China and Japan conclude that the Clinton administration is serious this time, a nasty situation will be avoided. Otherwise, U.S. relations in Asia will turn sour.

Donald E. Nuechterlein, a political scientist and writer, lives in Charlottesville. He is the author of "America Recommitted: U.S. National Interests in a Restructured World."