
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SATURDAY, September 10, 1994                   TAG: 9409120054
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: A-4   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: 
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Short

RECESSION UNLIKELY TILL '97

The nation's economy probably will escape another recession for at least two more years, economic forecasters predicted in a survey being released today.

``Of the panel members willing to make a guess, about six out of 10 felt the ax would fall in 1997 - the year after the next presidential election,'' said Robert J. Eggert Sr., an economist who conducts the monthly surveys and edits the Sedona, Ariz., newsletter.

``None expected a recession to begin next year, and only one in five now believe a recession will begin in 1996,'' he added. ``However, it should be noted that four out of 10 panel members said the next recession `was too early to call.'''

The most recent recession lasted eight months, ending in March 1991.

The consensus of the 51 panelists predicts the gross domestic product will grow 3.6 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 1995. The 1995 growth rate would approximate the average annual advances in the past 10 years, Eggert said.

The GDP, the total output of goods and services produced in the United States, grew 3 percent in 1993.

- Associated Press

by CNB