Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SATURDAY, May 21, 1994 TAG: 9405210086
SECTION: SPECTATOR PAGE: S-16 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: By Bob Curtright Knight-Ridder Newspapers
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Even if they don't knock your own hometown flat, they can still pack a real economic wallop through stock market plunges, devastated suppliers and lost markets.
That's the word from Alex Gregory, writer-producer of a scary but fascinating documentary about the recent cycle of quakes worldwide that seems to indicate The Big Ones for Los Angeles and Tokyo - and possibly New York City, Boston and Memphis - are getting close.
"Earthquakes: The Terrifying Truth" airs at 8 p.m. ET Saturday as part of the "ABC World of Discovery" series.
To be sure, there is an ominous tone at the beginning that's a little overly melodramatic: "In Los Angeles, each second that passes is another second closer to The Big One," narrator Martin Sheen intones, pointing out that residents in 39 of the 50 states are in "real danger."
But Gregory, a longtime Angelino, is considerably more upbeat when you get him on the phone. During a conversation from his home in Santa Monica, which he's still putting back together after the Jan. 17 Northridge quake, Gregory insists that while he doesn't fear earthquakes, he has a healthy respect for them.
"Everybody who lives out here knows that the San Andreas will pop off one of these days. It's overdue. But you can't be obsessed about them and live in California. You can only be aware and prepared," he says.
"Earthquakes created California with its hills and lakes and shore-lines - and its natural resources like oil and gas. California wouldn't be the good place to live that it is without earthquakes. It's a good trade-off."
Gregory began work on this documentary about 10 months ago, tracing cycles of earthquakes that may indicate when certain areas are vulnerable. In Toyko, for example, a major quake of 8-plus on the Richter Scale strikes on an average of every 70 years. The last one was in 1923 - 71 years ago - so that city of 30 million is living on borrowed time.
But not any more so than Los Angeles and San Francisco, whose destruction from The Big One has been predicted for the past decade, terrorizing some residents with every quiver of the landscape and amusing others as late-night comics make TBO a frequent topic of jokes.
Gregory uncovered historical newsreel footage from Japan and China that shows the aftermath of devastating quakes: 140,000 died in Tokyo in 1923 and an estimated 800,000 died in Tangshan in 1976, although the Chinese government admits to only an official count of 250,000.
"The cover-up is probably from a combination of things. First, it's a closed society. But the government was also embarrassed that it had successfully predicted the Haicheng quake in 1975 and saved thousands of people. They made a big deal out of it but didn't see the 1976 quake coming," he says.
Most people think that in a perfect world, quakes will be predicted so people can evacuate. But Gregory cautions that, ironically, releasing a quake prediction can be even more costly and more deadly than the quake because of panic.
"They could kill more people in traffic accidents than the quake would have. It's a real trade-off question whether it's worth it."
Those two quakes in Japan and China represent the greatest loss of life in this show but not, interestingly, the largest quake. That goes to the 1964 quake in Alaska, which was measured at over 9 on the 10-point Richter scale. Roads and bridges were buckled and wrenched apart but there was not a great loss of life because there weren't a lot of people in the area.
That's always the key to the danger, says Gregory. A great quake (anything over 8) in an uninhabited area is not much of a concern but even a moderate quake (6 or 7) in a densely populated area like Tokyo or Los Angeles can result in the greatest tragedy.
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While Gregory was in the middle of working on this documentary, he was given a personal wake-up call when the Jan. 17 quake measuring 6.7 shook Los Angeles into consciousness at 4:31 a.m.
"We lost the chimney and there were major cracks. An interior wall was wrenched out of place and the beam snapped. Everything was on the floor, naturally. We're still in the process of putting everything back together," he says.
"This is the first quake large enough and close enough to inflict major damage on our property. I had earthquake insurance but the bureaucracy of working with insurance companies is a nightmare."
He jokes darkly that this sort of homeowner hassle afterward could be the basis for a sequel.
How do you raise children on a fault line?
"My children don't like them," he admits. "After the Northridge quake in January, they wouldn't sleep in their beds for several weeks. But they know they are prepared. They know where the flashlights are and where the gas main is. We have an evacuation plan so they don't feel helpless."
Gregory notes that such cities as Memphis, Boston, Charleston, St. Louis, Salt Lake City and Seattle are vulnerable to a killer quake because they are built on or near faults and most of their buildings don't meet earthquake standards. If the 5-plus quake that shook New York City in 1884 came today, probably 60 percent of the buildings on Manhattan - those of unreinforced masonry - would collapse.
He uses clips from the made-for-television movie "The Big One" to demonstrate what the effects likely would be of an 8 or larger quake on Los Angeles. The clips are clearly identified as special effects rather than real footage and Gregory doesn't believe including them diminishes the credibility of his documentary.
"I think the real footage is more dramatic but I used the movie footage because it was the only way to show a great quake. There have not been that many of them and nobody was out taking pictures while they were happening."
During a temblor, the worst danger is being crushed by the collapse of unreinforced brick or stone buildings. In the quiet afterward, the danger is from fire sparked by broken gas lines. Days later, the concern is disease from lack of fresh water and open sewers.
But there is a danger beyond that that most people don't think about, Gregory notes. If - actually, when - a major quake strikes Tokyo again, the economic impact will be felt worldwide because of the stock market there. The same might happen if that rare quake takes out Wall Street in New York (there are fault lines under Times Square, 42nd Street and Central Park).
"We might think `Too bad for Tokyo' but it will also be too bad for us, too. The economic upheaval will be devastating."
by CNB