Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, May 30, 1994 TAG: 9405300093
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B3 EDITION: HOLIDAY
SOURCE: dwayne yancey
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
The big question surrounding the GOP convention isn't just who wins the party's U.S. Senate nomination,but what impact that has on the Democratic primary ten days later.
The general feeling among political pundits is that when Republicans finally pick a candidate,the cold reality of reading the headline "GOP nominates North" or "GOP nominates Miller" will get the Democrats' attention in a way mere speculation cannot.
But there are at least four schools of thought in the college of conventional wisdom on what that impact will be:
They go like this:
Scenario 1:Republicans nominate Oliver North. Reaction:Democrats figure North,with his high negative ratings,will be easy to beat,so they are free to renominate Sen. Charles Robb.
Scenario 2:Republicans nominate North. Reaction:Democrats are terrified at the prospect of North beating the baggage-laden Robb and turn instead to Sylvia Clute or state Sen. Virgil Goode.
Scenario 3:Republicans nominate Jim Miller. Reaction:Democrats are terrified at the prospect of Robb having to take on the scandal-free Miller,and turn to one of their own scandal-free candidates,Clute or Goode.
Scenario 4:Republicans nominate Jim Miller. Reaction:Democrats have no fear about facing the dull and little-known Miller,so are free to renominate Robb.
And those scenarios don't even begin to take into account the prospect of former Republican gubernatorial candidate Marshall Coleman entering the race as an independent if North wins -or the possibility of former Democratic Gov. Douglas Wilder jumping in,regardless of what happens on the Democratic side.
University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato,ever the quotesmith,describes the likely impact of the Republican convention:
"It's like a nuclear reaction. You don't know which direction the explosion is going to go in,but there will be a shock wave,no matter which way the convention goes. And the energy will last through the 10 days to June 14."
What will it take for Goode,or Robb's other main challenger,Richmond lawyer Clute,to upset Robb?They'll have to figure out how to ride that "shock wave" just right.
"As any surfer will tell you," Sabato says,"catching that perfect wave is a matter of luck -dude."
Pick a number, any number
The beauty of the state Republican convention is that none of the delegates is formally pledged, the way they are at national conventions - so there's absolutely no way to say for sure who's ahead.
That hasn't stopped the two candidates, though. Last week, Miller loudly claimed he had pulled ahead in his surveys of the 15,000 convention delegates, by 45 percent to 42.5 percent.
Not so, North's camp claimed. Their man was leading, 57 percent to 32 percent, they insisted.
Who's right? Who knows? "I think it's a lot closer than people think," Sabato says. "It's an actual contest."
Ringing the school Bell
Democrats interested in challenging Roanoke County state Sen. Brandon Bell next year have already signaled they'll target his support for taxpayer-funded "vouchers" for private schools.
That's apparently just fine with Bell, who's keenly aware he may face a stiff challenge in 1995.
So when Gov. George Allen appointed Bell last week to his "Champion School Commission" to look into school reform, Bell promptly fired off his own version of the announcement:
"With Bell's aggressive approach to improving public education, he was the natural Senate choice for this commission for Governor Allen."
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB