Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, July 25, 1994 TAG: 9407260017
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: By DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Will they all be able to mount credible campaigns, or will some of them - particularly the two independents - wilt for lack of money and organization?
The early polls send mixed signals. Two recent Mason-Dixon polls showed all four candidates bunched up in the 20 percent range.
But other surveys, by the Washington Post and Virginia Commonwealth University, show the field separating into two distinct tiers: Democrat incumbent Sen. Charles Robb and Republican Oliver North the top contenders, and independents Douglas Wilder and Marshall Coleman well in the rear.
Which polls are right?
Even the pollsters say they don't know - which offers a chance to provide some guidance to voters on how to read polls.
If two polls are different, pollsters stress, it's not that one's wrong and one's right.
The key is that before pollsters can take a poll, they must make certain assumptions about whom to poll. They want a poll sample that mirrors the electorate in November. That can be tricky, though.
``I know the Virginia electorate better than any person alive,'' boasts University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato, ``and I can tell you I am constantly surprised by the structure of the electorate.
``That presumption is arrogant.''
For instance, in 1985 and 1989, the Washington Post's polls were infamous for overstating support for the Democratic candidates. Why? Because the Post's pollsters bet that with Wilder on the ticket, more blacks than usual would turn out to vote. They didn't, so the poll's sample didn't reflect the way the electorate actually looked.
The same types of questions haunt this year's polling: For example, will conservative Christian activists backing North vote in disportionate numbers, which means polls would tend to underestimate North's strength?
There also are some important differences in the way the various polls are conducted. For instance, the Mason-Dixon poll told those interviewed each candidate's party identification; the VCU poll didn't.
Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says he figures his method winds up ``slightly'' inflating support for the two independents - because voters may be disgusted with the two parties.
By contrast, VCU pollster Scott Keeter says his interviewers are less aggressive about trying to pin down which way undecided voters are leaning - which explains why his poll shows more voters who haven't made up their minds. He figures that probably holds down the numbers for the two independents.
North campaign advisers claim the Mason-Dixon poll oversamples Northern Virginia voters, which exaggerates Coleman's support and depresses North's.
But Coker says his polling sample is based on turnout trends in previous elections, so he thinks it's a more accurate reflection of the state's geographic breakdown than other samples.
Pundits on parade
This week's question: The summer's half over. How's the campaign going so far?
Larry Sabato, University of Virginia: ``The way things are going in July doesn't tell you much about the way things are going to go in late fall, when it really matters.
"I'm convinced Coleman and Wilder are running under the radar, doing the things they have to do - contact people, raise money. They're not in the driver's seat. They have to let Robb and North do their thing'' and wait for voters to get disgusted with the prospect of either of the party nominees winning.
Mark Rozell, Mary Washington College: ``I still think it's a wide-open race any one of the four can win. Any one of three could fade substantially; I don't see North's support fading away. The biggest problem for North is expanding his base.
``The debate [before the Virginia Bar Association on July 16] was a major minus for Robb, because of the widespread agreement he had a very poor night. That helps the two independents generate the kind of news coverage and stature they can't receive otherwise.''
Scott Keeter, Virginia Commonwealth University: ``First of all, the campaign is going to matter: what the candidates say and how they comport themselves. Early polls give the campaign a false sense of settlement. Just ask Governor Mary Sue Terry.''
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB