Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, October 5, 1994 TAG: 9410050075
SECTION: EXTRA PAGE: 1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MICHAEL CORCORAN DALLAS MORNING NEWS
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Rarely is there a pattern to the choices, so there's not much information to weigh. And with basically the same acts up against each other year after year, there's no way to tell if voters will go with the favorite or go against expectations just to give a trophy to someone new. You know, ``Sorry, Reba, we'll catch ya next year.''
The greatest gift in predicting the CMAs is in being able to guess which way the bloc voting will shift. Every major label has a number of votes, and the popular suspicion is that agreements are made ahead of time to throw the entire section of votes at a certain candidate. Two years ago, after Mary-Chapin Carpenter took home the female vocalist award and the moderately popular Suzy Bogguss pulled a shocker in the Horizon Award category (for newer artists) by beating Trisha Yearwood, Pam Tillis and Brooks & Dunn, the explanation from some Nashville insiders was that Liberty Records, Bogguss' label, made a deal with Carpenter's people at Sony: Liberty would vote for Carpenter as best female in return for Sony's support of Bogguss in the Horizon.
Maybe it didn't happen like that. Maybe bloc voting is, like the emergence of Mark Collie as a country star, just another unsubstantiated claim from the little town with the big head. Whatever the reason, there are usually enough surprises that predicting the CMAs is a lot like shooting guppies in a horse trough.
But here are my picks:
Entertainer
Nominees: Brooks & Dunn, Garth Brooks, Vince Gill, Alan Jackson and Reba McEntire
Corcoran's prediction: Alan Jackson. Gill won last year, but his latest album is a bit of a disappointment. Garth has spent most of the year touring overseas and making commercials for McDonald's. McEntire, who's been snubbed by the CMAs in recent years, will win if A.J. doesn't, but the likable Georgian has had a great year. Brooks & Dunn? Uh, yeah, and Lincoln Coleman just might get the NFL rushing title this year.
Single
Nominees: ``Does He Love You,'' Reba McEntire with Linda Davis; ``Don't Take the Girl,'' Tim McGraw; ``He Thinks He'll Keep Her,'' Mary-Chapin Carpenter; ``How Can I Help You Say Goodbye,'' Patty Loveless; and ``I Swear,'' John Michael Montgomery
Corcoran: John Michael Montgomery's ``I Swear.'' This is the only sure thing at the CMAs, as country music reclaims ``I Swear'' from the pop world. The only other song with a chance here is the McEntire-Davis musical cat fight.
Album
Nominees: ``Asleep at the Wheel Tribute to the Music of Bob Wills and the Texas Playboys,'' various artists; ``Common Thread: Songs of the Eagles,'' various artists; ``Easy Come Easy Go,'' George Strait; ``Rhythm, Country and Blues,'' various artists; ``Who I Am,'' Alan Jackson
Corcoran: ``Common Thread.'' Easily the best-selling of these LPs. Featuring CMA faves like Vince Gill, Brooks & Dunn, Alan Jackson and Tanya Tucker, this would be a shoo-in except that it produced a Nashville controversy when it was discovered that Giant Records would benefit mightily from sales of this semibenefit LP.
Female vocalist
Nominees:Mary-Chapin Carpenter, Reba McEntire, Pam Tillis, Wynonna and Trisha Yearwood
Corcoran: Trisha Yearwood. With three acts on MCA (Reba, Wy and Trisha), you'd think that either Carpenter or Tillis would have the inside track, but neither has had a great year. My guess is that MCA voters will load up on one singer, probably Yearwood, and then concentrate on Reba for the entertainer award.
Male vocalist
Nominees: John Anderson, Vince Gill, Alan Jackson, George Strait and Dwight Yoakam
Corcoran: Alan Jackson. It's been his year, while three-time winner Gill has had a slight off-year. Dwight Yoakam is, perhaps, most deserving, but he's still something of an outsider to the Nashville Club.
Horizon Award
Nominees: Faith Hill, Martina McBride, Tim McGraw, John Michael Montgomery and Lee Roy Parnell
Corcoran: Tim McGraw. He's come out of nowhere to sell more records over the last year than any other country artist, so he should be the winner. You never know with this award, though. John Michael Montgomery and Faith Hill have also had a pretty spectacular year.
Vocal group
Nominees: Alabama, Confederate Railroad, Diamond Rio, Little Texas and Sawyer Brown
Corcoran: Little Texas
Vocal duo
Nominees:Bellamy Brothers, Brooks & Dunn, Brother Phelps, Orrall & Wright and Sweethearts of the Rodeo
Corcoran: Brooks & Dunn
Vocal event
Nominees: Aaron Neville and Trisha Yearwood, ``I Fall to Pieces''; Conway Twitty and Sam Moore, ``Rainy Night in Georgia''; Dolly Parton, Tammy Wynette and Loretta Lynn, ``Silver Threads and Golden Needles''; Reba McEntire and Linda Davis, ``Does He Love You''; and Mark O'Connor with Charlie Daniels, ``The Devil Comes Back To Georgia''
Corcoran: Dolly Parton, Tammy Wynette and Loretta Lynn
Music video
Nominees:``Does He Love You,'' Reba McEntire and Linda Davis; ``God Blessed Texas,'' Little Texas; ``How Can I Help You Say Goodbye,'' Patty Loveless; ``Independence Day,'' Martina McBride; and ``Standing Outside the Fire,'' Garth Brooks
Corcoran: ``How Can I Help You Say Goodbye,'' Patty Loveless, directed by Jim Shea
by CNB