Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, October 20, 1994 TAG: 9410210014
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: SARAH HUNTLEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Howell lived in Kuwait during the 1990 invasion that sparked Operation Desert Storm, and he knew the routine. Like most diplomats do, he looked at the patterns, and he began to feel uneasy.
"There were a lot of similarities between last week and 1990," he said. "But this time no one was going to give Saddam Hussein the benefit of the doubt. What is it they say? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
Iraq's repositioning of its forces was a miscalculated attempt to seek leverage and win international support for the lifting of sanctions, Howell said.
"The regime there really doesn't understand the world outside of Iraq," said Howell, who is now the director of the Arab Peninsula and Gulf program at the University of Virginia. "They are too used to using force to solve their problems."
An expert in the tensions, the turmoil and the treaties that led to current events in the region, Howell looked to history Wednesday as he addressed a group of about 35 Roanoke County teachers taking an evening course on the Middle East at School Board offices in Salem.
Howell said the region - and the United States' policies towards the Middle East - were shaped by four developments: the fall of the Ottoman, British and French empires; the rise of independent nation states; the onset of Soviet contact and influence with the Arab states; and the creation of Israel.
In response to these historical events, the United States government developed a four-pronged strategy. It became politically essential to foster stability in the region and to assure the survival of U.S.-friendly nations, Howell said. But securing access to oil at reasonable prices and keeping the Middle East from becoming the source of a world conflict with the Soviets also were important goals.
All of these objectives play a part now, Howell said, "But look at them and one thing jumps out at you. There are times when these objectives are incompatible with one another. Foreign policy there became an attempt to try to square the circle."
Efforts to juggle these goals have not always worked. That doesn't mean they were not worthwhile, Howell said.
At the end of the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq, Howell said he was involved in an effort to "house train" Saddam Hussein. "We called it Operation Litter Box," Howell said, with a laugh. The United States "tried to bring Saddam Hussein around," to make him a more cooperative neighbor in the region. While Howell said that to his knowledge no weapons were sold to Iraq, other agreements, such as agricultural loans, were negotiated. Then Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait.
Even so, Howell doesn't second-guess that approach. Strong-arming Saddam Hussein earlier would have given fuel to the critics. "They would have said, 'Of course he invaded Kuwait. You drove him to it,''' Howell said.
Nor does he question the allies' decision to end Operation Desert Storm with the liberation of Kuwait.
"There were many difficulties in going further. If we had indulged ourselves and gone after Saddam in downtown Baghdad, the coalition would not have survived. There never would have been a start to the Arab-Israeli peace process, and we would have suffered a lot of additional casualties," Howell said.
The biggest challenge, however, was the uncertainty posed by the future. "If Saddam Hussein had been eliminated or run out or thrown out, the immediate question would have been who replaces him," Howell said. "I've worked with Iraq for a long time, and I don't have any candidates."
by CNB