Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, September 24, 1995 TAG: 9509270003
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: D-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: KEVIN MERIDA THE WASHINGTON POST
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
It would be an extension of the exams the nation took in 1984 and 1988, when Jesse Jackson defied expectations by winning more Democratic primaries and caucuses - and lasting longer - than some of his better financed, more experienced white rivals.
Yet there will always be boundaries for Jackson, whose achievements have been in the civil-rights arena, and whom many voters will forever view through a racial prism.
Powell, on the other hand, has punched all of America's choice tickets to success. The son of Jamaican immigrants in the South Bronx, he rose to Army general, to national-security adviser, to chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. And now he has the chance to become a Jackie Robinson of the '90s - only he'll stride onto the playing field.
Beyond whether he should run as an independent or a Republican, whether he has the stomach for a presidential campaign, whether his overwhelming popular support will erode once his views on issues are fully known, lies the most significant question of all: Should he enter the contest because he is a uniquely qualified black man whose time is right?
``To have someone of his stature get into this thing, and initiate a dialogue on race in America, maybe he could turn the tide on the cataclysm that exists now,'' said Howard University political scientist Ronald Walters. ``That's a good enough racial reason to me.''
The racial dimensions of a Powell candidacy, while just being publicly aired, are fascinating.
``Powell's not black,'' declared Republican pollster Frank Luntz, speaking metaphorically, of course. ``That never comes up as a characteristic.''
Luntz has repeatedly asked about Powell in focus groups. Even white voters who signal racial hostility on questions about affirmative action and immigration lose that animus when it comes to Powell.
``Colin Powell doesn't fit any stereotype,'' Luntz said, ``and that is why Colin Powell's race doesn't come up.''
Among black voters, this would be considered a devastating assessment. Not black? Yet among whites, this is a tribute. It illustrates the striking gulf between the expectations that blacks and whites have of their political leaders.
Ron Lester, who often polls for Democrats in black communities, said black Americans respect Powell but don't yet know enough about him to determine whether he will stand up for them.
Conversely, Lester said, his focus groups show that President Clinton's standing among blacks has improved tremendously over the past year. This is because, the pollster added, of Clinton's defense of affirmative action, school lunches, child immunizations and other programs that blacks view as under assault by Republicans.
``So it's not just that Powell's going to come in and get black votes,'' said Lester. ``Whoever thinks that is in for an awakening.''
Some national surveys seem to confirm Lester's judgment. A March CNN/Time poll found that blacks favored Clinton over Powell 57 percent to 29 percent. A recent U.S. News and World Report survey found that one in four blacks had never even heard of Powell.
It is hard to believe that if Powell jumps into the race, he will not benefit from a wave of emotion. But so far, there are no ``Run, Colin, Run!'' chants emanating from the pews of black churches. The truth is that black voters are more sophisticated than is commonly believed.
``In this country, symbols don't mean a hell of a lot for us,'' said Clifford Alexander, the first black secretary of the Army, who during the Carter administration paved the way for Powell to become general. ``What means a lot is opportunity.'' Moreover, Alexander added, ``It is important to know how he sees himself as a black man.''
Reflecting on the opportunity to make history, Powell is intrigued but hesitant. No, he would not run simply to be ``the Great Black Hope, providing a role model for African Americans or a symbol to whites of racism overcome,'' he says in his new book.
But he also declared in a recent interview with Washington Post reporter Paul Taylor that the prospects of his campaign's spurring racial healing ``certainly would be an element in the consideration.''
Combing through Powell's speeches, one can find prideful references to his inner-city upbringing, tributes to the Buffalo Soldiers and other uniformed blacks on whose backs he climbed and declarations that America is far from a color-blind society.
But Powell is a military man, not an activist, and his enthusiasm for the triumphs and travails of his own people is balanced by his experience circling in a mostly white orbit.
During the Post interview, he approvingly noted that several stories about him recently didn't even mention he was black. ``And so people will judge me in whatever I do in my future life, I think, first and foremost as an American. And that's good.''
Ironically, then, the most touted hope yet to break the presidential color barrier is someone whose accomplishments seem to be more widely recognized by whites than by blacks.
Jesse Jackson, who is still considering another bid for the presidency, points out that Powell is ``perceived as nonthreatening'' by whites.
``He's not someone who's shown any visible dissatisfaction with the system,'' Jackson continued. ``He expresses gratitude for our struggles. He's benefitted from them. But he was not in those struggles.''
And for Powell, that may make any struggle for the White House a whole lot easier.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB