
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: WEDNESDAY, September 27, 1995                   TAG: 9509270063
SECTION: EDITORIAL                    PAGE: A-8   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: 
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

LESSONS

ONE OF the most astute world-watchers, the Economist magazine, offers in this week's issue an analysis of Bosnia peace efforts that ought to get wide and careful attention. Its editorial draws a telling comparison between the Balkans in 1995 and Palestine in 1948.

Think about it. In 1948, Israelis and Arabs had in effect partitioned themselves via cruel war, complete with massacres and mass expulsions. New borders, drawn in blood, were precarious. Jerusalem, that war's Sarajevo, ended up divided by barbed wire. But at least, the exhausted people thought, peace had arrived. The war had ended.

Of course, it hadn't ended. The Mideast peace process is making slow and painful progress today, but only after four wars and much bloodshed, conflict and terrorism.

As in the Balkans, the conflict was aggravated by religious and international rivalries. And old injustices continue to inflame passions and enmity.

Can we avoid another Middle East in the Balkans? The Economist suggests we heed two morals.

First, all parties to a peace plan must be persuaded it will survive. Arabs after the 1948 war continued to believe they could retake the former Palestine. Such illusions must be avoided in the Balkans.

Second, justice matters. It's not enough to look, as the so-called realists do, for a balance of power. As the Middle East experience shows, these balances prove unstable if feelings of injustice fester long and strongly enough. Thus, a political settlement in the Balkans must make clear what happens to, and who is accountable for resettling, the more than 3 million people forced to flee their homes during the fighting. To do less would be to invite radicalization and terrorism.

A tougher question is the efficacy of partition. Is it really necessary to end such conflicts? The Economist is equivocal on this point. But don't forget that Arabs make up a fifth of Israel's population today.

Some division of Bosnian territory between Serbs and Croats is inevitable. But, as the Economist suggests, "The survival of a truly democratic federation, generous toward the Serbs and Croats who will form part of its reduced dominion, could expiate some of the sins of the past four years."

It's one reason the dream of a multicultural Bosnian state should not be given up. History teaches: As a guarantor of peace, democracy beats division.

by CNB