Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, November 2, 1995 TAG: 9511020100
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-6 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: The New York Times
DATELINE: MIAMI LENGTH: Medium
These are the first major studies of a law that has been adopted in different versions by 28 states, including Virginia. Just this year, 10 states passed versions of the Florida law that went into effect in 1987, and at least three other states were considering statutes that would broadly permit citizens to carry concealed weapons.
Gun owners say the laws deter crime, while gun control advocates say they cause crime. The laws are so new, however, that until now there has been little data to support either claim.
One study, due to be published later this month by researchers at the University of Maryland, says implementation of Florida's law coincided with increases in gun homicides in three Florida cities they observed.
After the law went into effect, the average gun homicide rate in Jacksonville increased 74 percent over the average for several previous years. In Tampa the increase was 22 percent; in Miami it was relatively unchanged, at 3 percent, said David McDowall, a criminology professor at the University of Maryland who led the study.
The report, which has already circulated among criminologists, also found a similar correlation in Jackson, Miss., where the average murder rate with guns increased 43 percent. But in Portland, Ore., the other city in the study, the rate decreased 12 percent.
``We can't say definitively that the law was responsible for the increase,'' McDowall said of his findings that will be published in the Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology at Northwestern University Law School. ``But based on the evidence in those five cities, it would appear so.''
As a control, McDowall said, they also observed the rate for homicides committed without guns, and found it was unchanged in all five cities.
Florida officials and advocates for gun owners defended the laws Wednesday, saying there is no way to say for certain that the net effect has been negative, and that the number of criminals who have obtained permits for concealed guns is insignificant.
``This program has worked very well,'' said John Russi, director of the Florida state office that has issued the licenses to 204,000 gun owners since the law went into effect.
Among all permit holders, he said, ``we've had a total of 52 people who have used a firearm in the commission of a crime.'' Russi added, ``When you compare that to the number of licenses that were issued, that's very small.''
In fact, FBI statistics show gun-related homicides in Florida have decreased 29 percent from 1987 to 1992, the same period covered by the Maryland study. But McDowall said that comparing just two years, rather than averages of several years, ignores intermediate spikes in the murder rate that occurred right after the concealed gun permits were issued.
At the National Rifle Association, the executive director of the group's Institute for Legislative Action, Tanya Metaksa, said that the Maryland researchers had used bad logic to manipulate the results and that analyzing only cities was a mistake. ``They took selected areas.'' Metaksa said. ``This is a state law, and the whole state is affected.''
Metaksa also said the study ignored the greater good of such legislation. ``It will deter crime,'' she said. ``Criminals will be less likely to go after people who may be carrying a gun.''
The other study, released Wednesday by the Violence Policy Center, a Washington group that advocates gun control, looked at who exactly was obtaining the permits and said the Florida law had allowed hundreds of criminals to obtain guns.
Although the law's aim is to allow only law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons, the study found that 469 permit holders had committed crimes, before or after obtaining permits, which should have made them ineligible or led to the revocation of their permits.
by CNB