Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, November 3, 1995 TAG: 9511030016
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MARGARET EDDS STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: ALEXANDRIA LENGTH: Long
The real bogeyman in Tuesday's election, begins Ticer, is someone other than her longtime friend and current rival, to whom she has just passed a lozenge for a scratchy throat. It is, she says, Calhoun's party mate, Gov. George Allen.
"I do seriously believe that Governor Allen has a very radical agenda, and I am worried," she says.
Here in the populous cities and suburban counties just south of the Potomac, that message is resonating to a greater degree than in perhaps any other area of Virginia. At a time when Republicans downstate are urging an Election Day referendum on Allen's conservative vision, some area party members, including the politically moderate Calhoun, fear the vote will be just that.
As a seven-year Senate veteran, slated in a Republican takeover to become chairman of the committee dearest to Northern Virginian hearts, Transportation, Calhoun is struggling to persuade voters to consider his record, not Allen's. Except for his experience in Richmond and party labels, there is precious little separating him and his opponent, he argues.
"She's a Democrat; I'm a Republican," he said recently while waiting to speak to the Fairfax Education Association, which has endorsed him. "She dislikes George Allen and I don't care about George Allen, one way or the other."
Calhoun, whose campaign literature describes him as "our independent voice in Richmond," may be the extreme example of a Republican working to shed identification with the Allen agenda. The decidedly Democratic district in which he is running dictates radical measures.
But there is little dispute, even among Republicans, that Northern Virginia is the region of the state where Allen's tax-cutting, prison-building agenda has gotten its most skeptical reception.
A midsummer poll by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Bethesda, Md., bore out the common wisdom. Allen's "good-to-excellent" rating in Northern Virginia was 43 percentage points, 10 points behind his statewide positive rating. The "poor" rating he got from 19 percent of the poll's Northern Virginia respondents was the highest for any region in the state.
"Allen's going to be real strong south of the Rappahannock," says Dick Leggitt, a veteran consultant to Virginia Republicans. "North of the Rappahannock, he many not hurt, but he's not a big help."
Those who cite a weakness for Allen in Northern Virginia list several causes:
A regional detachment from Virginia politics, concern by federal workers about job-threatening spending cuts, substantial support for gun control measures opposed by Allen, skepticism (fueled by some prominent local businessmen) about Allen's support of education, and less appreciation than in the hinterlands for his tobacco-chewing folksiness.
"The personal cowboy charm that helps Allen in the rest of Virginia doesn't help much up here," said an aide to one GOP officeholder.
Concern over Allen's plans for education are particularly strong in Northern Virginia, where upscale, professionally driven parents demand quality education for their children.
Democrats, citing Allen's attempt last winter to reduce a planned increase in funding for public education, are trying to make the election a referendum on financial support for education.
Their efforts in Northern Virginia have been boosted by a group of leading businessmen who are urging hundreds of millions in additional spending for higher education.
On a foray into the region several weeks ago, Allen sought to dispel criticism by promising a "significant increase" in education funding during the next two years. But he also tweaked the educational establishment over "bloated administrative staffs and nonessential activities."
"He tells 'em the way he thinks it," Mullins said. "I'm going to bet he picked up some respect" for his blunt language.
There will be plenty of opportunities to gauge come Election Day. Depending on how one defines the region, about one out of every five legislative seats is located in Northern Virginia.
Among the most-watched contests are the Calhoun-Ticer matchup in a district that includes Alexandria and small portions of Arlington and Fairfax Counties, and a race between Democratic Sen. Joseph Gartlan and former 8th District Republican Rep. Stanford Parris in the southern portion of Fairfax County.
Also being closely watched because of the personalities is the Fairfax County House contest between Democrat Linda Puller, whose deceased husband won a Pulitzer prize for a book recounting the impact of the Vietnam War on his life, and Sandy Liddy Bourne, daughter of syndicated radio talk show host and Watergate figure Gordon Liddy. Puller is thought to hold the edge in that contest.
Conventional wisdom is that Democrat Ticer is favored to win in Alexandria because of the demographics of the district, while Republican Parris should hold an edge in Fairfax for the same reason.
In campaigning, Ticer hammers repeatedly on the Allen agenda. "We should not race to the bottom of the pack," she said in several recent appearances, referring to Virginia's declining rankings in spending on education and social programs.
"A lot of Republicans, including this one, had a lot of problems with cuts in education, cuts in mental health, cuts in transportation," Calhoun replied.
The lion-in-winter race between Gartlan and Parris pits the Senate's most long-standing liberal voice against a conservative whose political resume spans decades.
Gartlan, who narrowly won four years ago against a lesser-known opponent, has not shied from the attack this year. One of his brochures shows Parris with $100 bills floating by and alleges that Parris "has never met a developer he didn't like."
Another is a sinister portrayal of faceless men with question marks over their jacket or pants pockets. "Now more than ever you have to wonder who's packing a pistol," says the text, referring to a new Virginia law liberalizing the permitting process for carrying concealed weapons.
"Say No to Stan Parris and the NRA [National Rifle Association]," it urges.
Meanwhile, Gartlan's $148,000 campaign chest has been boosted by many of those he has aided during his almost quarter-century legislative career: mental health advocates, trial lawyers, social workers and unionists.
Parris has lost his last two political outings - bids for the GOP nomination for governor in 1989 and re-election to Congress in 1990. But he has some 10,000 names on his personal contribution list, and his fund-raising mechanism is so sophisticated that it individualizes donation requests. He has raised $186,000.
Seldom mentioning the governor, Parris has been campaigning on portions of Allen's platform - cutting taxes, fighting crime and reforming welfare. He lambastes Gartlan as a free-spending liberal, and has made much of the discovery that several photos of alleged Northern Virginia traffic jams in Gartlan's literature were actually shot in California and Washington state.
Taking a front-runner's stance, Parris has agreed to debate Gartlan only sporadically, and has recently gone on the defensive with television ads countering Democratic charges that he is a lazy campaigner.
The wild card in Northern Virginia elections, say several analysts, is the proximity to Washington. Shifts in how voters feel about House Speaker Newt Gingrich or President Clinton ultimately could be as important as how they feel about George Allen.
Republican campaign consultant Leggitt sees the Gartlan-Parris matchup as an indicator for the rest of the state.
If Parris wins, it will probably be a good night overall for the GOP, he said. "But if we lose up here, we're going down the tank other places."
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB