Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, November 9, 1995 TAG: 9511090042
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DAN CASEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
The election post-mortem is in.
And on the day after a Democratic sweep of four competitive General Assembly races, it was difficult to find anyone involved in Roanoke Valley politics who wasn't marveling at the number of voters Democrats turned out at the polls on Tuesday.
"They did a pretty bang-up job at turning out their vote," said defeated Sen. Brandon Bell, R-Roanoke County, who lost by an unexpectedly wide margin to Roanoke Vice Mayor John Edwards.
Almost 59 percent of city voters showed up at the polls Tuesday; only 43 percent cast ballots in the 1991 General Assembly elections.
Put another way, in this year's race, Bell got almost 1,500 more votes than he did in 1991. Due largely to city turnout, Edwards still beat him by 4,009 votes.
A large part of the city turnout this year can be explained by the fact that there were four contested races in the valley: Bell-Edwards; House Majority Leader Richard Cranwell against Republican Trixie Averill; Del. Clifton "Chip" Woodrum against Republican Newell Falkinburg; and Del. Victor Thomas against Jeff Artis.
That's a first for the valley and a big change over 1991, when the only contest on the ballot was Bell vs. Democratic incumbent Sen. Granger Macfarlane.
Because Cranwell, Woodrum and Thomas all were unopposed four years ago, Macfarlane couldn't benefit from any Democratic coattails. This year, Edwards probably did.
"The more I think about it, it was Brandon Bell vs. John Edwards, Vic Thomas, Chip Woodrum and Dick Cranwell," said Bell campaign manager James Faulkner. "We stirred up a hornets' nest when Newell and Trixie got in there and were serious challengers."
The Democrats didn't take a high turnout for granted, however. Instead, they waged a united voter identification and turnout effort that Woodrum campaign manager Baker Ellett likened to one the Democrats ran last year in the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Charles Robb and Republican Oliver North.
Faulkner said it was the one thing Bell campaign strategists "never figured into the equation."
A key component of the turnout effort was a hired telephone bank paid for by the state Democratic Party, Edwards campaign manager Harry Carver said.
In four waves since early October, professional telemarketers called thousands of voters throughout the valley, revealing a huge number of undecided voters and where they were concentrated.
Woodrum, Edwards and Cranwell targeted much of their door-knocking and direct-mail advertising in those neighborhoods. The strategy's big payoff first became apparent over last weekend, Ellett said.
"We called 10,000 people previously identified as undecideds, and they were breaking 3-1 for John [Edwards]," Ellett said. "That's when I knew it was over." (Carver said the numbers were more like 5-2 for Edwards).
Another component to the get-out-the-vote effort was an army of volunteers who answered phones and drove voters to the polls.
Cranwell ran radio ads offering people rides if they needed them. Drivers were dispatched to voters' homes via voice-mail pagers. The Democrats even hired a minibus and driver.
The payoffs in the city turnout may be judged by comparing the 1991 Macfarlane-Bell results to Bell's and Edwards' showings Tuesday.
In 1991, Bell beat Macfarlane in 17 of 32 city precincts. Yet on Tuesday, Bell won in only three city precincts. And the areas in which Edwards scored biggest - black precincts such as Eureka Park, Villa Heights and Washington Heights - showed the largest increases in turnout.
Edwards said another factor in black precincts' voting was efforts by 6th District Democratic Chairman Onzlee Ware.
Although county voters had a higher overall turnout, at just under 61 percent, that was only marginally higher than the 1991 county turnout of 57 percent.
Tim Phillips, Bell's campaign strategist, said the county increase didn't necessarily help Bell, even though he ran stronger in the county than Edwards.
"The county turnout was skewed by Vinton [Cranwell's home turf], and we got hammered there," Phillips said.
There were other reasons for the Democratic sweep. From about Labor Day until the end of the campaign, the Democrats incessantly portrayed themselves as the champions of education. Interviews with voters suggested that was an issue they truly cared about.
Woodrum said it was more through serendipity than by design that Democrats seized on education as an issue. Gov. George Allen handed it to Democrats early this year by proposing $92 million in cuts to schools and state colleges and universities, the delegate said.
By contrast, Republicans' messages were less focused; they seemed unable to seize one issue and make great gains by it.
And then there was the negative campaigning. The Democrats said Republicans' personal attacks and distortion of their records backfired and drove some voters against the GOP.
Roanoke Mayor David Bowers alluded to that Tuesday, introducing Edwards to a victory party as the "gentleman" senator from the 21st District.
"I couldn't stand all that slinging mud all the time," said a woman who congratulated Cranwell at the Vinton McDonald's on Wednesday morning.
"That took the toll on 'em down here," Cranwell crowed in reply. "It sunk Pat Cupp [who lost to Democratic incumbent Sen. Madison Marye in the New River Valley]. It sunk Brandon Bell; it sunk Trixie Averill."
Democrats unanimously agreed.
"The misrepresentation, the demonizing and the personal attacks hit a point where it drove up their negatives," Woodrum said. "It can work in a statewide campaign. But you get down to state Senate or House districts, and you've got to be very careful. You're dealing in 'retail' politics, and people down here know whomever you're speaking of."
Republicans, however, were mixed.
"I think some Republicans were turned off by the negativity of the Republican campaigns," said Del. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, who was unopposed for re-election.
Phillips, however, said Democrats were just as negative - but that it was more hidden than it was in Republican campaigns. A case in point was a phone campaign, targeted at older voters, linking Bell and other Republicans to U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich and efforts to cut Medicare and Social Security.
"They were calling old folks and scaring them," Phillips said.
by CNB