Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SATURDAY, November 11, 1995 TAG: 9511120003
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Virginians are more cautious than they are conservative.
Virginia is, both parties agree, a conservative state. So Republicans figured the way to take control of the General Assembly was to frame the choice as one between "liberal Democrats" and "conservative Republicans" - and also one between "status quo" and "change." So what happened?
Virginians may be conservative, but they're cautious about making too many changes - and handing Gov. George Allen a blank check with a Republican majority bent on transforming state government just seemed too risky for many voters. "We've got to have someone to keep 'em straight," was the way Vinton retiree Paul Hodges explained his vote for House Majority Leader Richard Cranwell. "It wouldn't be politics if it wasn't mixed."
Demographics are still on the Republicans' side.
Virginia is becoming more suburban, and suburbanites tend to back Republicans. The Democrats gained Senate seats in three districts where there's a big urban vote (John Edwards in Roanoke, Emily Couric in Charlottesville, Patsy Ticer in Alexandria), but lost seats in fast-growing suburban districts, such as Virginia Beach (where Clarence Holland lost to Ed Schrock) and Hanover County (where Elmo Cross was ousted by Bill Bolling). "So the underlying trends continue to move away from Democrats," says former Democratic Party Chairman Paul Goldman, who has long urged the party to move to the center to become more acceptable to suburban voters.
Allen, in his post-election news conference, pointed out that most Virginians voted for his party - 57 percent of the votes cast in state Senate elections went to Republicans; 52 percent cast in House elections went to the GOP. Party strategist Scott Leake says the reason those votes didn't translate into a majority of seats is that the lines drawn during the 1991 redistricting work against Republicans. But Goldman says that even without a new redistricting, he counts four to six Senate districts that lean Republican, where longtime Democrats continue to hang on.
Tip O'Neill was right: All politics is local.
Republicans tried to turn 140 elections for the General Assembly into a single, statewide referendum in much the way the GOP managed to "nationalize" the 1994 congressional races. But many Virginia voters resisted making these into a statewide choice, and insisted on seeing these as local contests about more practical concerns - such as who would best stand up for their community in Richmond.
That hurt candidates who were running as loyal followers of Allen and helped incumbent Democrats who ran on their records of securing funding for hometown projects. That also cost an incumbent Republican - state Sen. Brandon Bell of Roanoke County - who hadn't developed a strong image during four years in office and was trying to run for re-election on an Allen platform of statewide issues. Many voters at the polls said they didn't have a clear sense of Bell standing up for the region.
"I don't think he's done very much," said Vinton retiree Dorothy Hodges. "I don't think Bell knew enough how to get things done. Dick Cranwell stands up and says 'I want this and I want that.'''
Independence is important.
Because voters see these as essentially local elections, the GOP emphasis on Allen gave Democrats an opportunity to portray Republican candidates as "puppets" of the governor, rather than independent voices for their community. "With Trixie Averill, everything came from Allen," said Vinton retiree Curtis Scooper. "Nothing came from her mouth." The lesson that state Sen. Malfourd "Bo" Trumbo, R-Fincastle, takes from the campaign: "People in Western Virginia don't want rubber stamps."
Isaac Newton was right: For every action, there's an equal but opposite reaction.
By framing this as a referendum on his administration, Allen brought out not only the Republican vote, but also the anti-Republican vote. Allen's proposed budget cuts, which targeted social programs, stirred emotions - and turnout.
Consider Juanita Johnson, who voted at Roanoke's Lincoln Terrace precinct: "I voted for Edwards. Bell - he wanted to cut Meals on Wheels. And he's connected to Governor Allen."
Or Rita Welcher, who voted at the city's Melrose precinct: "I think it's against Allen. I think he's the worst governor we have ever had in the state of Virginia, Republican or Democrat."
It wasn't just in traditionally Democratic precincts, though, where an anti-Allen vote turned out. "I am not happy with the Republicans - George Allen and his cohorts," said Joan Vess, as she voted at the Garst Mill precinct in Roanoke County. "We are becoming socially irresponsible in the state of Virginia."
Attack advertising backfired.
The Republicans were aggressive in going after Democrats with what they styled "attack" advertising or "comparative" advertising, which Democrats complained was "negative" advertising. Early on, some Democratic leaders feared that Edwards was making a mistake by not punching back against Bell. But many voters said the GOP attacks turned them off and persuaded them to vote for Democrats.
"To tell you the truth, I almost didn't come on down to vote for anybody," said Jeanette Ferrell, who voted for Edwards and Del. Clifton "Chip" Woodrum at the Hunting Hills precinct in Roanoke County. "I didn't like the negative campaigning. Every time I turned on the radio, they were slinging mud at each other."
She wasn't alone. "When the Republicans talked about the Democrats ... it kind of influenced me to vote," said Francine Cook, who cast her ballot at Roanoke's Lincoln Terrace precinct. "It was a whole lot of negative talk."
Keep it simple. Or, education is a potent issue.
Republicans chortled throughout the fall that polls showed there was only one issue where voters trusted Democrats more - education. But that may have been all they needed. Democrats hammered home the theme that they'd increase funding for education, and it was a message that resonated with many voters.
"I went Democratic," said Dawn Hoal, who voted at the Cave Spring precinct in Roanoke County. "My big issues were crime control and education. I almost didn't vote, but I said, 'I better.'''
Welcher, the Melrose precinct voter, was even more emphatic: "When Dumbo - the governor - decided to turn down [federal money] for education, that was the final straw for me."
Post-election analysis credited the education issue with cinching wins not only for Edwards over Bell in the Roanoke Valley, but also for state Sen. Madison Marye over Pat Cupp in Montgomery County, and Couric over state Sen. Edgar Robb in Charlottesville.
Even Republicans' pet issue of turning over lottery proceeds to localities was blunted by voter concerns over education. "Who knows where it will go then?" said Hodges, the Vinton voter. "If it stays in Richmond, it'll be used for education. There should be a little control over it. Some of the localities would not use it for what it should be used for."
Trumbo faulted his party's leadership for ceding education as an issue - "I told them Democrats would raise education as an issue and Republicans shouldn't shy away from it." He and Del. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, also say their party lost its punch by trying to raise too many issues. Griffith says that also was a problem during last winter's legislative session, when Allen offered so many initiatives that supporters couldn't focus on any of them. "This business of having five or six major issues floating at one time, I hope he's learned that lesson," Griffith says.
Don't scare the old folks.
The national backdrop - with congressional Republicans trying to overhaul Medicare - put many senior citizens in a foul mood against the GOP. Cranwell and other Democrats capitalized on that sentiment by sending out mailings to senior citizens urging them to send a message to Newt Gingrich. "In the last week, what killed us was Medicare," Averill says.
Cultural conservatism remains a potent force.
It didn't carry the day, but still appeared to be the motivating factor that brought many Republican voters to the polls. "The big factor in my votes was being a Christian," said Stan Cross, who voted at the Hunting Hills precinct in Roanoke County. "Where I vote is where I felt my Christian values would lead me to vote. The biggest single deciding factor for me is a candidate's position on abortion. I'm pro-life."
For Ralph and Nancy Miller, who voted at the county's Cave Spring precinct, the question came down to Christian family values, and they felt the Republicans were delivering the message on those fronts. "I voted for Christian values that I believe my delegates are going to follow through on, family values," he said. "I believe the Republican Party is standing for family values more than the Democratic Party."
Staff writer Dan Casey contributed to this report.
by CNB