ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1995, Roanoke Times
DATE: Friday, December 15, 1995 TAG: 9512150093
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B4 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
DATELINE: CHARLOTTESVILLE
SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS
Virginians who move to the country to escape inner-city violence may actually be putting their lives in greater danger, according to a University of Virginia urban planning professor.
William Lucy said Thursday that the chances of being killed in a traffic accident or murdered by a stranger are greater in exurban areas than in central cities in those areas.
Exurban areas are rural areas beyond the dense suburbs but within commuting distance of cities.
``Ironically, the fastest rates of population growth in the 1980s were in the most dangerous counties,'' Lucy said. ``Many people say they want to move where the quality of life is better, including safer, when actually many are moving where they may put themselves, their spouses and children in greater risk of being killed.''
Lucy based his conclusions on a study of traffic fatalities and murders from 1990 through 1994. The findings confirmed those of a previous analysis of the 1988-1992 period.
Exurban areas are more life-endangering than cities because more people drive faster and farther there, he said. That risk factor more than offsets the danger of being slain by a stranger in the city, Lucy said.
For example, New Kent and Dinwiddie counties near Richmond recorded one fatality for every 45 traffic accidents during the most recent study period. Richmond, which is notorious for its high murder rate, had one fatality for every 371 traffic accidents.
``The cities tend to have more accidents, but they're fender-benders,'' Lucy said.
In his study, Lucy calculated death rates per 100,000 residents for 49 jurisdictions in seven metropolitan areas in Virginia, plus Washington, D.C. Twenty-one jurisdictions had higher combined traffic fatality and murder-by-stranger rates than Richmond, and 18 had rates higher than Washington.
New Kent had the highest combined annual death rate, 58.7 per 100,000 residents. That was more than triple Richmond's rate of 17.3. Charles City County was second at 48.2 deaths per 100,000 residents. Botetourt County had 37.1 per 100,000 residents, while Charlottesville had 6.5.
In the other metropolitan areas, the central cities of Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville and Charlottesville had lower traffic fatality and homicide by stranger rates (1990-94) than the exurban counties, as well as being lower than the suburban counties.
Charles City County Administrator Gail P. Clayton said she was surprised by the findings.
``I think we've got a pretty safe locality,'' she said. ``Traffic accidents are usually based on human error.''
As long as residents drive carefully, she said, they have nothing to fear.
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