ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Thursday, January 11, 1996 TAG: 9601110111
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
TYPE: ANALYSIS
SOURCE: EDWARD KEAN KNIGHT-RIDDER/TRIBUNE
GOP LEADERS and the president all can gain from taking a break - rather than giving up on - efforts to balance the budget.
The abrupt halt to budget talks Tuesday among President Clinton and congressional leaders in all likelihood was more of a manufactured breakdown than an actual collapse.
Statements by both Clinton and congressional leaders, coupled with the actions of congressional and White House staffs, suggest the talks are by no means over, though they are clearly in a short hiatus.
And the political necessity for candidates to hit the campaign trail and for others to raise funds is a major reason the hiatus was called.
As evidence that the talks aren't at a real breakdown, neither congressional Republican leaders nor Clinton were willing to declare an impasse.
Perhaps with an eye toward calming nervous financial markets, both Clinton and the congressional Republicans stressed they remained ready to resume negotiations, though Republicans put the pressure on Clinton to move toward their negotiating position.
Republican congressional leaders say they may try to bypass the White House and pass veto-proof spending legislation with the help of conservative Democrats.
But House Speaker Newt Gingrich said Wednesday there may be a stalemate that will not be resolved until the election.
``I think the odds are better than even as of today that there will be no agreement. And I find that a very difficult prospect,'' Gingrich said in Casper, Wyo., where he attended a Republican fund-raiser. ``I am, for the first time in a year, pessimistic about the likelihood of our getting agreement,'' he said.
``It may just be that we need one more election. It may literally be that the Clinton administration cannot agree to the kind of decentralization and lower spending and lower taxes that we represent.''
Clinton and the Republicans declared an impasse Tuesday after another long session at the White House that failed to resolve major differences over the future of Medicare and Medicaid spending and the size of a tax cut.
In the absence of a budget agreement, there's a possibility that many government offices once again will be forced to close Jan. 27, when the latest temporary federal funding measure expires. There already have been two government shutdowns since the budget talks began in earnest in November, furloughing some federal workers for a record total of 27 days.
Both Clinton and the Republicans probably realize there is a risk that stock and bond markets will experience sharp declines if they were to announce talks had broken down.
So why did the talks recess for a week?
One aide to a high-ranking Senate Democrat maintained the talks were suspended for Gingrich's fund-raising while Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole, hits the presidential campaign trail. Dole is scheduled to leave today for South Carolina, with other campaign appearances scheduled Friday in Alabama and Saturday in Iowa.
While that probably is partisan hyperbole, there were several possible reasons the negotiators decided to take a breather.
First, Clinton plans to travel to Bosnia this week for a three-day trip. The talks would not have continued then anyway.
Second, it may be in the interest of both parties to manufacture a breakdown to gauge public sentiment on who is to blame.
A recent poll suggested the prolonged budget talks were starting to hurt Clinton's popularity rating and a break may provide an opportunity for Republicans to keep blaming Clinton for failure to move toward their position.
There were several indications that Tuesday's ``breakdown'' was preordained.
Earlier Tuesday, congressional Republicans were letting it be known that the day's session was a make-or-break one.
Moreover, aides to congressional Republicans willingly released details of their negotiating offers to Clinton to support their assertion that they have been far more willing than Clinton to compromise on an agreement.
Generally speaking, both sides have been reluctant to divulge many details of their negotiating offers.
After Clinton made conciliatory remarks Tuesday, White House staff released a two-page summary of ``facts'' designed to counter Republican assertions that Clinton was not willing to compromise.
The White House paper maintained that Republican charges that Clinton was unwilling to compromise were ``flawed and inaccurate,'' saying both sides have shown ``comparable'' movement in the talks.
There appears to be significant gaps between the two sides that may not be easy to mend.
Clinton clearly seems determined to head off large cuts in Medicare and Medicaid programs. Republicans insist on larger cuts in Medicare and Medicaid as part of their drive to downsize the federal government.
Republicans remain determined to push for larger tax cuts than Clinton is willing to accept.
That the two sides still are discussing a tentative date to resume talks suggests reasons for cautious optimism. Also, it is by no means clear that Republicans have agreed on an alternate course.
House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, was discussing the possibility of trying to push the latest Republican budget offer through Congress, but Dole was making no such promises.
The Associated Press contributed information to this story.
LENGTH: Long : 106 lines ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: AP. President Clinton holds a copy of a letter sent toby CNBHouse Speaker Newt Gingrich from the Congressional Budget Office
certifying Clinton's budget proposal. color.