ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Wednesday, January 31, 1996 TAG: 9601310039
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: B-1 EDITION: METRO
COLUMN: Jack Bogaczyk
DATELINE: BLACKSBURG
SOURCE: JACK BOGACZYK
Halfway through its first hoops hike through the Atlantic 10 Conference, Virginia Tech, as expected, leads a division and appears headed for its first NCAA Tournament bid in a decade.
Appearances, however, can be deceiving. The Hokies could come up short again using one popular NCAA ruler - the Ratings Percentage Index.
Tech is 14-2 and 7-1 and ranked 13th nationally. It has been an underdog only once in A-10 play, at George Washington, and the oddsmakers were right. GW had more presence that night than that provided by season-ticket holders Red Auerbach and Wolf Blitzer.
If the Hokies have been troubled in dealing with their new neighbors, it has been more a matter of style than substance. The A-10 is a more pushy league than was the late Metro, and Tech has seen more zone defense in a month than it saw in many Metro winters. A-10 teams have learned the Hokies, while not exactly a finesse team, are small and aren't accustomed to muscling.
However, it does seem Tech is going to have to shove its way into a larger profile.
Punxsutawney Phil hasn't yet checked for his shadow, and already the Hokies are on the NCAA fence. They are shooting the ball better than last season, but their team defense isn't as crisp and aggressive, and somebody besides Ace Custis has to rebound.
The two-man game that yielded so many hoops in recent years is seen less, although running that set into a good zone can be hazardous. Coach Bill Foster seems ready to use more of his club's solid depth, but it will take more than sideline psychology to win next month.
A Monday night victory over St.Joseph's was most impressive in that Tech refused to allow the Hawks to get anything easily. Foster has spent recent weeks trying to persuade his team that rankings sometimes are too good to be true. If he wants to sell his club on how it must continue to play, perhaps the numbers he should show the Hokies are those in the RPI.
The Ratings Percentage Index is only one of many measurements used by the NCAA Basketball Committee to fill the tournament field. It carries significant weight because of its many numbers. It measures a team's power rating and strength of schedule.
This week, the Hokies are 49th in the RPI. They aren't helped by a schedule that brings UNC Greensboro into Cassell Coliseum tonight. Tech's schedule is ranked 200th out of 305 Division I schools. VMI is 201st. Among teams in the AP Top 25, only Auburn (256) has a lower-rated schedule than the Hokies, who have been hurt by down years for Virginia and West Virginia.
Dating to when the NCAA field was expanded to 64 in 1985, no team in the final AP poll has failed to make the Large Lambada. However, the Hokies need only to look in their trophy case to remind themselves of what can happen. They won the NIT last year, after ranking 36th in the RPI used as a tool for NCAA selections.
Tech was the highest-ranked RPI club to not make the NCAA field last year. In recent years, the RPI cutoff for reaching the field has been around Nos.40-45, although last year, Manhattan (No.50), as a 25-win, regular-season conference champ, and Minnesota (No.67) sneaked in.
If the RPI was the sole determining factor by the NCAA, using this week's poll, the Hokies would be the first club to fall off the fence. If you take the 30 automatic bids out and then pick the remaining top 34, you get only through Texas - No.48.
The Hokies' RPI does figure to improve because the schedule gets tougher in February, and Tech could use another quality win - on the road Saturday at Rhode Island (No.74), or top -ranked Massachusetts (RPI No.2) at Cassell or a triumph at Temple (No.36).
In March 1995, three Techs - Virginia, Georgia and Texas - were the last teams eliminated on the ``big board'' behind the closed doors of the NCAA committee room. The Hokies' increased national exposure through the NIT title, TV dates this season, poll-climbing and features in Sports Illustrated and on CBS will be positives at the NCAA table this time.
To the NCAA committee, the last 10 games of a season are much more important than the first 10. Tech has 10 regular-season games before the A-10 tournament in Philadelphia, where the Hokies' quarterfinal and semifinal dates realistically could be against hometown teams.
It's only going to get tougher for the Hokies. Then, as the RPI shows, maybe that's just what a team that can be good enough to get a top-six seed in an NCAA region really needs.
LENGTH: Medium: 83 lines KEYWORDS: BASKETBALLby CNB