ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Tuesday, February 6, 1996 TAG: 9602060058
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: B-6 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JEFF STURGEON STAFF WRITER
The Roanoke-area economy will create about a third fewer new jobs this year than in 1995, according to an economist at the College of William and Mary.
As job growth dips from 4.1 percent last year to a predicted 2.4 percent this year, the growth of retail register tapes will slow as well, Roy L. Pearson said.
Pearson's annual forecast, which arrived in mailboxes Monday, is a closely watched indicator of the economy's direction regionally and statewide. This year, what the report doesn't say may be as meaningful as what it does.
"We're definitely not predicting a recession," said Pearson, who instead sees slower growth.
He cautioned, however, that consumers will spend less freely. Total taxable sales will grow 4 percent in Roanoke, Salem, Roanoke County and Botetourt County, compared to 5.7 percent in 1995, he said. The state's sales growth estimate is 4.4 percent, down from 6.4 percent last year.
"We don't think it's going to be a good year for car sales," said Pearson, who directs William and Mary's Bureau of Business Research.
Operators of hotels, restaurants and attractions should brace for what may be surprising news in their industry: Pearson predicts a decline in tourism during the 17 days of Olympic games this summer centered in Atlanta. The reason? Large numbers of people will cut their travel to watch the competition on television, Pearson said.
Pearson predicted 3,300 new jobs for the Roanoke region this year, compared with about 5,400 last year. He predicted statewide employment will grow from 3.08 million jobs to 3.14 million jobs, an increase of 1.9 percent, compared with a gain of 2.5 percent last year.
In a separate report on the construction industry, 42 percent of contractors surveyed in Virginia, seven other Southeastern states and the District of Columbia predicted an increase in building activity this year. The report, which was compiled for The CIT Group/Industrial Financing in Livingston, N.J., an equipment financing concern, said 12 percent of contractors who took the poll predicted an upturn in building, and 46 percent predicted no change.
LENGTH: Short : 46 linesby CNB